General Election seat projections for all of Wales based on latest ITV Cymru Wales poll

The Labour Party is expected to win all but four seats in Wales at the upcoming General Election, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales poll.

Sir Keir Starmer's party is projected to regain key seats across the so-called red wall in north Wales.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are projected to win one seat, in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, and face a battle with the Liberal Democrats over Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.

Senior Conservatives, current government chief whip Simon Hart and Welsh secretary David TC Davies, are projected to lose their seats.

The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov, suggested that 45% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in the upcoming General Election, up three points from our previous poll in December, while 18% would choose to vote for the Conservatives.

At the 2019 General Election, Labour won 22 seats, Conservatives won 14, and Plaid Cymru took four.

This time around, things are expected to go differently.

One thing is sure: the number of parliamentary seats in Wales is reducing from 40 to 32 at the General Election due to boundary changes. These changes mean every constituency in Wales, apart from Ynys Môn, has changed in some way. You can read more about it here.

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

According to ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University's poll, Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is the only seat projected to be a safe bet for the Conservatives.

This new boundary covers the former Montgomeryshire seat and some of the former Clwyd South seat.

Since 2010, Montgomeryshire has been a Conservative seat, whereas the Clwyd South seat turned blue at the 2019 election.

Slight leans

There are two seats which are expected to be very close, based on the poll. "Slight lean" describes the minimal margins in favour of one party, which means the pollster's prediction comes with a level of uncertainty.

One of these seats is Caerfyrddin, which is projected to be a slim win for Plaid Cymru. The new constituency joins together parts of two former constituencies: Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire has been home to former Welsh Secretary Simon Hart since 2010, while the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat has been a Plaid Cymru strong-hold since 2001.

The ITV Cymru Wales poll also projects that Monmouthshire will marginally swing to Labour. The new seat boundary sees Monmouth, traditionally a Conservative seat, combine with Newport East, traditionally a Labour seat.

This could be one of the biggest upset for the Conservatives because it would mean the current Welsh secretary, David TC Davies, could lose his seat.

The Welsh "Red Wall"

At the 2019 General Election, Labour suffered heavy defeats in seats in north Wales. Constituencies which had nearly always voted Labour switched overnight to the Conservatives.

This time round, the ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University poll suggests Labour will regain all of the constituencies it lost in 2019 and strengthen their hold in the north of the country.

Too close to call

The seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe remains undecided, split between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

The seat is renamed from Brecon and Radnorshire and has seen its boundary enlarged.

It is no surprise the seat is projected to be too close to call, as the Brecon and Radnorshire seat has historically flip-flopped between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

"The total collapse of the Conservative electoral coalition in Wales"

The poll aims to provide an insight into people's beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,066 Welsh voters aged 16+ between 30 May-3 June.

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: "These new figures are consistent with trends seen across the UK and add to the growing evidence that Labour are heading for a landslide victory in Wales winning slightly less than half of all votes cast, while the Conservatives are fighting to avoid an historic defeat and the loss of all Westminster representation in Wales."Rather it is the total collapse of the Conservative electoral coalition in Wales, with their vote halving from 36% in 2019 to just 18% in this poll.

"As it stands, the odds of a return to the 1997-2005 period of no Conservative MPs in Wales are roughly the same as a coin flip."

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