Conservatives to lose all but one Welsh seat and Labour head for landslide victory — ITV Wales poll

The Conservatives look set to lose all but one seat in Wales in the upcoming General Election, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales poll.

The latest seat projections reveal Labour are heading for a landslide victory for seats in Wales, with Plaid Cymru on track to win two, perhaps three, seats in July.

Whether the Liberal Democrats will end their absence on the Westminster stage in Wales remains too close to call.

Those are the results of ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University's latest opinion poll as we enter the second full week of the General Election campaign.

The Barn Cymru poll, conducted by YouGov, suggested that 45% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in the upcoming General Election, up three points from our previous poll in December, while 18% would choose to vote for the Conservatives.

The poll also shows that Reform UK are polling stronger than Plaid Cymru, with more than a quarter of those who voted for the Conservatives back in 2019 now backing Reform this time round.

For Plaid, a third of their support in 2019 say they'll be backing Labour in the upcoming election.

At the 2019 General Election, Labour won 22 seats, Conservatives won 14, and Plaid Cymru took four.

But the number of parliamentary seats in Wales is reducing from 40 to 32 at the General Election due to boundary changes, which you can read more about here.

In response to a question about the performance of the Welsh party leaders, 57% believe that Welsh Labour leader Vaughan Gething is performing badly, with only 15% of the view that he's performing well.

The poll aims to provide an insight into people's beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,066 Welsh voters aged 16+ between 30 May-3 June.

Westminster voting intention:

• Labour: 45% (+3)

• Conservatives: 18% (-2)

• Reform UK: 13% (+1)

• Plaid Cymru: 12% (-3)

• Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)

• Green: 4% (+1)

• Other: 1%

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre, said: "These new figures are consistent with trends seen across the UK and add to the growing evidence that Labour are heading for a landslide victory in Wales winning slightly less than half of all votes cast, while the Conservatives are fighting to avoid an historic defeat and the loss of all Westminster representation in Wales.

"Rather it is the total collapse of the Conservative electoral coalition in Wales, with their vote halving from 36% in 2019 to just 18% in this poll. As it stands, the odds of a return to the 1997-2005 period of no Conservative MPs in Wales are roughly the same as a coin flip.

"The story for Plaid Cymru is a familiar one for them at Westminster elections, with voters switching in large numbers to the Labour Party. There is some evidence that this switch is a tactical one however, with their Senedd vote intention showing a substantial transfer of these voters back into the Plaid Cymru fold.

"Reform UK are another beneficiary of Conservative collapse with three in 10 2019 Conservative votes intending to vote for them. While many expect Reform’s actual vote share to be smaller than these numbers suggest, this might not necessarily be the case. This poll suggests the Reform vote maybe more ’sticky’ than previous similar elections."

Analysis by ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters

Labour in Wales is continuing to enjoy a strong performance in our opinion poll. It will come as a welcome boost to a party that has been buffeted by controversy over candidate selection and criticism of the Welsh Labour leader.

The poll shows that the Conservatives in Wales remain in difficult territory, with many of their previous supporters choosing to back Reform UK.

With support for Plaid Cymru slipping below that of Reform UK, this will be an interesting trend to keep an eye on as the campaign progresses.

How party leaders are faring

According to the ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University poll, 71% of the people surveyed think Rishi Sunak is doing badly as prime minister, which is up 3% since the last poll in December. Only 21% thinking he is doing well.

In response to the same question about Sir Keir Starmer and his role as leader of the Labour party, 49% think he is doing badly and 35% think he is doing well.

As for Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, 26% of people polled thought he was doing well as leader of his party, but 51% of people said they didn't know if he was doing well or badly.

In response to a question about the performance of the Welsh party leaders, 57% said they believe that Vaughan Gething is performing badly, with 15% taking the view that he is performing well.

You can find out all the details from the ITV Cymru Wales poll on Sharp End.

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