Why Sunak faces jeopardy of historic proportions tonight

I’ve never known quite so much jeopardy around a leader’s debate as there will be for Rishi Sunak in tonight’s ITV face-off against Keir Starmer.

The reason is that he called an election that most of his candidates did not expect or want to fight till the autumn.

And since he fired the starting gun, very little has gone right for him.

There have presentational mishaps galore, such as getting soaked as he made his historic address to the nation, and flying the union flag upside down in his first party political broadcast.

More materially, a glut of policies designed to woo older traditional Tory supporters - a tax break for retired people, national service for the young, closure of supposedly pointless university courses - has done nothing to cut Labour’s yawning margin of advantage in opinion polls.

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Today’s announcement he would impose annual numerical immigration limits is all part of the same thematic package.

Only yesterday four separate polls showed Labour on course for a landslide. And they measured public opinion before we saw the theatre of Nigel Farage re-entering the fray, by taking full personal control of the Reform Party and standing as a candidate, with his avowed mission to destroy the Tory Party and reshape the right of British politics.

This hideous backdrop for Sunak - an election he did not have to call, and that he seemingly had not prepared properly - means that his candidates and supporters will cut him no slack tonight.

If he performs poorly, there will be no forgiveness or tolerance for him from his supposed friends.

The stakes for and pressure on Sunak could not be higher. As for Starmer, his imperative is different, namely not to appear smug or triumphalist, not take the votes of British people for granted. My prediction, therefore, is that Starmer will play to his personal history as a barrister, and will painstakingly and methodically build the case against Sunak and the Conservative Party - which will be remorseless if rarely entertaining.

By contrast, Sunak has to repeat something he has only achieved once in his political career, which is to establish an emotional connection with voters. He did it during Covid, in the press conference that showered cash on workers with the furlough scheme. He’s never achieved it since.

Tonight on ITV’s platform, Sunak somehow has to channel that pandemic moment in which he conveyed competence to manage a genuine national crisis. Far more than for Starmer, the leader’s debate will be where and how Rishi Sunak is measured by voters and by his own party.

The ITV Election Debate debate and interviews will be broadcast on ITV1, ITVX and STV and STV Player at 9pm

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