BLOG: The risks associated with Jersey’s 'Stay At Home' order coming to an end

If I was to tell you that the 'Stay At Home' order was ending, you could interpret that a thousand different ways.

For some people, they understand 'Stay At Home' is in effect a brand that summarises the rules that have governed our lives for the past six weeks or so, and that the next stage is merely a further easing but not ending of those measures.

For others, it’s tantamount to saying “lockdown is over, get on with your lives”.

And that’s the difficulty facing all those managing Jersey’s response to this pandemic, as that latter interpretation is far from the case.

Yet it is already how some people are hearing it.

I’ve received multiple accounts this week, already, of people going about their life as normal, and even challenging people who are wearing face masks to ask why they’re still taking recommended precautions as “the pandemic is over”.

That’s the trouble with nuance. Some people just don’t take it in. In effect, people hear what they want to hear.

Add to that, last week’s confusion when the government itself put out the wrong advice for four full days and you can see the difficulties and dangers that come with each change.

Today, Jersey’s Chief Minister will announce the island is moving from the current level four of its “safe exit plan” to level three starting next week.

In a nutshell, level four is stay at home for all but four hours a day, though continue to shield if you’re considered extremely vulnerable because of your health.

Level three will see that four-hour restriction lifted, but the public health messages remain. Physical distancing matters. Limiting the number of people you see matters. Personal hygiene, washing your hands more than usual, wearing a face covering when going to the shops (as is “strongly recommended”) matters.

Level three will also see more businesses able to trade. More retailers can begin to open. Restaurants, cafes and other food establishments can offer outside dining.

But all of this relative freedom must be balanced with what’s happening in the community when it comes to the spread of coronavirus.

Guernsey has adopted a New Zealand-style model of aiming to eradicate it entirely. Jersey has gone in a different direction, which is also followed by the UK, in accepting it will continue to spread and that the majority of people will “need” to get it to build herd immunity with a vaccine likely a year or so away.

The risk of lifting lockdown too soon is that the current trickle of cases (less than 10 in the last week) begins to rise, as then does the burden on the health service, and ultimately the death toll.

The risk of staying too locked down for too long is a rise in mental health problems and domestic abuse cases, while the economy goes to hell in a handcart. Unemployment doubling in April is just one measure of what’s going on.

So, today, language will matter. Messaging will matter. And how we all respond to it will also matter.