Lockdown could result in nearly seven million job losses, University of Essex study warns

Nearly seven million jobs could be temporarily lost as a result of the coronavirus lockdown, a new study from the University of Essex has warned.

According to the research, which was carried out by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the university, that equates to around a quarter of the UK's total jobs, with more than half the positions in certain sectors to be cut.

The report predicts that accommodation and food services will be the worst hit, with more than 75% of jobs, or just over a million positions, under threat.

"Wholesale, retail and repair of motor vehicles" jobs are also expected to be severely affected, as is the transport and storage industry.

The report also warns there could be knock-on effects of certain industries on other sectors, such as agriculture which could lose one job in 10due to reduced demand from the accommodation and food sector.

A deserted Cambridge city centre. Credit: ITV News Anglia

Other sectors could thrive though, with the health and social work industry expected to see a 27.1% increase in their workforce.

The institute took into account the capacity of some people to work from home, which will affect some sectors more than others.

The study did predict that most job losses would be temporary, but those cuts could become more permanent if the lockdown lasts for an extended period of time.

"If this is short, say a few months, the links between employers and employees of affected industries might not be severed, and individual careers might not suffer too much," Lead researcher Professor MatteoRichiardi said.

"Under a longer lockdown, losses of human capital and scarring effects willoccur. The economy will still bounce back, but at a higher cost for individuals."

Prof Richiardi added that a continued lockdown would be economically unsustainable, and called for the lockdown to be phased out across sectors and regions, and reinstated if needed, when the time is right:

"This is why we need to make the most out of the extra time the lockdown is buying us, and increase our capacity to trace and isolate new cases, especially asymptomatic cases, so that the economy can be restarted before a vaccine is ready."

Coronavirus: Everything you need to know