Voting closes: The key seats to watch in the South West

Some of the candidates at risk or hoping to gain: Jacob Rees-Mogg (Conservative), Carla Denyer (Green), Johnny Mercer (Conservative). Credit: PA

The polls are closed, millions have voted and the exit poll is out for the 2024 General Election.

It is damning for the Conservative party nationally if it is true, and suggests Labour will easily pull ahead with an overall majority of 170 seats.

In the West Country, the exit poll also suggests the Liberal Democrats will do well - reclaiming what they view as their heartlands in Somerset and Gloucestershire.

But where are the tightest races in the South West and who could end up out of a job? We have written a round-up of which ministers and shadow ministers could win or lose.

But here is a dozen of the key seats likely to see the tightest battles on polling day and when - possibly - we might receive their results:

Result expected (approximate): 3:15am

Exit poll result: Green gain

This is a new seat that Labour has been battling to keep hold of in the race against the Greens.

The Shadow Culture Secretary and Labour candidate Thangam Debbonaire won a majority of 28,219 in the former seat of Bristol West.

But Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer hopes to win the constituency and unseat Ms Debbionaire.

Labour's Thangam Debbonaire (left) previously served as the MP for Bristol West - and is now standing against Green co-leader Carla Denyer.

Result expected (approximate): 5am

Exit poll result: Labour gain

One of the seats at the top of Labour's target list in Cornwall, this seat is guaranteed to have a new MP as the incumbent MP George Eustice stepped away before the election.

Labour's Perran Moon is hoping to undo the 8,700 majority won by the Conservatives in 2019. The seat has always voted blue since it's creation in 2019, but the area itself has historically swung between the two main parties.

Labour candidate Perran Moon out canvassing in the constituency, where he hopes to gain his party a foothold in Cornwall.
  • Cheltenham: Is this goodbye for the current Justice Secretary?

Result expected (approximate): 3am

Exit poll result: Lib Dem gain

Defending this seat is the Justice Secretary and Conservative candidate Alex Chalk.

But his blue majority is wafer thin, with less than 1,000 votes separating Mr Chalk from the Liberal Democrats in 2019.

Cheltenham is one of the Liberal Democrats' big target seats in the West Country and, the party's leader, Sir Ed Davey, was so confident of taking the seat that he launched his party's national election campaign there in May and visited it this week.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey makes a speech during a visit to the town centre in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire. Credit: PA
  • Glastonbury and Somerton: Can the Lib Dems win big in Somerset?

Result expected (approximate): 4am

Exit poll result: Lib Dem gain

A new seat for the 2024 general election, Glastonbury and Somerton is being contested closely by the Liberal Democrats' Sarah Dyke and Faye Purbrick for the Conservatives.

The pair have run against each other before last year at a by-election, where Ms Dyke won by 11,008 votes.

Faye Purbrick (left) hopes to beat Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Dyke, seen after winning in 2023. Credit: PA/ITV.
  • Honiton and Sidmouth: The only South West seat where two MPs are competing

Result expected (approximate): 5am

Exit poll result: Conservative gain

Honiton and Sidmouth is the only constituency to have two incumbent MPs going head to head in the West Country, and one of the only seats to have this unusual arrangement in the country.

The Conservatives' Simon Jupp and the Liberal Democrats' Richard Foord are going head to head. Both were sitting MPs until Parliament was dissolved for the election.

Simon Jupp has previously represented East Devon, a constituency which has since been abolished. But Richard Foord was elected to Parliament to represent Tiverton and Honiton in a by-election in 2022. Their majorities are just 564 votes apart.

Honiton and Sidmouth is one of the only seats in the UK where two incumbents are competing for one seat. Credit: PA/ITV.

Result expected (approximate): 4:30am

Exit poll result: Too close to call

This seat is one to watch because senior Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg is having a re-match against his long-time rival, Labour's Dan Norris.

But this time, the seat has been redrawn and now Labour views North East Somerset and Hanham as a genuine target.

Mr Rees-Mogg has held multiple cabinet positions, and has represented the former seat of North East Somerset since 2010 - when he beat Mr Norris to the post.

Jacob-Rees Mogg has represented the former seat of North East Somerset since 2010.

If Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat, this would be a big upset for the Conservatives in the West Country. But if Dan Norris failed to gain the seat, this might be an indicator that polling has been too generous to Labour and that murmurs of a 'supermajority' are off.

Labour's Dan Norris canvassing on Keynsham High Street.

Result expected (approximate): 5:15am

Exit poll result: Labour gain

This constituency is seeing not only a clash of the parties, but conflict between two former military men.

The Conservatives' Johnny Mercer is the incumbent and has been since 2015. The Veterans' Minister has consistently pushed up his majority at each election since, most recently winning by a comfortable 12,897 votes.

Johnny Mercer Credit: James Manning/PA

But Labour has set it's sights on taking Mercer's seat and has matched the Conservatives' ex-Army captain with a former captain in the Royal Marines.

Fred Thomas hopes to win the seat for Labour, but Mr Mercer came out last month questioning Mr Thomas's military service.

Labour's candidate has denied "lying" about his service as his opponent has alleged, and said he is "unable to discuss" much of his time in action.

Fred Thomas is the Labour Party's candidate for Plymouth Moor View.

Result expected (approximate): 5am

Exit poll result: Lib Dem campaign

This traditionally Conservative seat is being targeted by the Liberal Democrats, who last won it in 2010.

Conservative candidate Derek Thomas is the incumbent. His majority has gone through ups and downs across three elections and in 2019, he beat the Liberal Democrats by 4,280 votes.

For their part, the Lib Dems have put up the same candidate in the seat since 1992 and are hoping Andrew George can regain a seat he has won in four elections.

Derek Thomas has been the MP for St Ives for eight years and is standing for office again. Credit: ITV News

Result expected (approximate): 12:30am

Exit poll result: Labour gain

Swindon South is another Conservative West Country seat that Labour has locked eyes on.

Sir Robert Buckland, formerly the Welsh Secretary and before that the Justice Secretary, is the incumbent Tory candidate, having represented the seat since 2010.

His majority has also wavered throughout his 14 years in office, but in 2019 he received 6,625 votes more than Labour - his largest to date.

Sir Robert Buckland Credit: Liam McBurney/PA

The former barrister will now be fighting to keep his seat against Heidi Alexander, a Labour politician and former MP hoping to reclaim the constituency for her party.

Labour won Swindon South when it was created in 1997 and held it until the 2010 general election. Ms Alexander has previously sat in the Commons as an MP for Lewisham East, in London, between 2010 and 2018.

Labour has been pushing hard to take this seat. Sir Keir Starmer, the party's leader, visited the constituency on 19 June, just over two weeks out from polling day. The visit is a sure sign Labour is determined to win the area over.

Heidi Alexander, Labour's parliamentary candidate for South Swindon. Credit: ITV News

Result expected (approximate): 5am

Exit poll result: Labour gain

A seat that has been Conservative since 2010 has now caught the attention of Labour, as the party seeks to unlock areas of Cornwall.

Truro and Falmouth has voted blue since it was created in 2010.

Truro and Falmouth has voted blue since the seat was created in 2010.
  • Wells and Mendip Hills: Could the Lib Dems regain the seat after nine years?

Result expected (approximate): 3:30am

Exit poll result: Too close to call

Wells and Mendip Hills is another new seat that has lost what would have been its incumbent Conservative MP.

Formerly known as 'Wells', this seat was represented by then-Armed Forces Minister James Heappey in its previous form, before he stood down earlier this year.

Now standing for the Conservatives in this seat is Meg Powell-Chandler, a former special adviser who has primarily worked in Number 10 and in various government departments.

Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister, dropped by last month to give Ms Powell-Chandler his backing, in a bid to firm up what has been dubbed the 'rural wall'.

The visit is a personal endorsement by a big hitter, but it is also a sign that the party does feel genuinely threatened at the chances of holding onto this seat.

In Wells and Mendip Hills, the threat comes not from Labour but from the Liberal Democrats' Tessa Munt, who represented the original Wells seat in Parliament between 2010 and 2015.

She has unsuccessfully stood against Conservative candidates four times, but will hope to have an 'incumbency effect' of her own - being better known locally than her Conservative opponent for the first time since she contended the seat.

Result expected (approximate): 5:30am

Exit poll result: Liberal Democrat gain

West Dorset is on the Liberal Dems' target list and is a seat they feel increasingly confident they could win.

The incumbent is Conservative candidate Chris Loder, who was elected in 2019 on a comfortable majority of 14,106.

It's another place that the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, has visited.

West Dorset is on the Liberal Democrat's target list.

Polling stations closed at 10pm and results are expected from 12am on Friday 5 July.