Insight

The West Country's Government ministers: Who is at risk of losing their seat?

From left to right (clockwise): Mel Stride, Johnny Mercer, Mark Harper, Rebecca Pow, Alex Chalk, and Michelle Donelan. Credit: PA.

Conservative candidates in seats across the West Country are checking and re-checking their polling as the 2024 general election enters its final days.

Among those hoping to hold onto seats in the South West are six Tory ministers.

Each is now campaigning hard in their local constituency, emphasising the benefits they have brought to the areas they represent.

But will these six West Country ministers continue to serve come 5 July?

Polling has consistently placed the Conservative party around 20 points behind Labour, which could indicate that a future Tory administration is unlikely.

Senior Conservative ministers, such as the Defence Secretary, have openly spoken about stopping Labour from achieving a 'supermajority' - in effect acknowledging that the Conservatives are unlikely to win.

Others though, like the Foreign Secretary and Prime Minister, have insisted that the Tories are still in the fight.

A perhaps more existential question for some ministers in the South West is if they can even hold onto their seats, or if come polling day, they will be out of not one, but two jobs.

  • Alex Chalk - Cheltenham

Alex Chalk has represented Cheltenham since 2015 and has been serving as the Justice Secretary for a little over a year.

The former barrister has previously served in other ministerial roles including in the Ministry of Defence but will be hoping he can turn the tide on his increasingly small majority.

Mr Chalk was elected with a majority of 6,516, successfully beating the Liberal Democrat candidate to the seat. This majority collapsed in the 2017 election, with Mr Chalk staving off the Lib Dems by 2,569 votes. This then fell again in 2019 to a knife-edge majority of 981 votes, just edging him past new Lib Dem candidate Max Wilkinson.

Cheltenham Conservative candidate Alex Chalk has seen his majority fall successively since he was elected.

The Lib Dems are hopeful they can take this seat come 4 July and have put Max Wilkinson up against Mr Chalk for a second time.

The party's leader, Sir Ed Davey, is so confident of taking Cheltenham that he launched the Lib Dem's campaign there in May.

Polling also puts the Lib Dems far ahead of the Conservatives in this seat, but Mr Chalk says while he may be "the underdog", he is still in the race to represent Cheltenham.

For a full list of candidates and to watch ITV West Country's constituency profile in Cheltenham, click here.

  • Michelle Donelan - Melksham and Devizes

Michelle Donelan represented Chippenham for the Conservatives after the 2015 election and has served in government under leaders Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak.

Ms Donelan is currently the Science and Technology Secretary having previously served in a number of other roles include Culture Secretary, as an assistant government Whip, and at the Department for Education.

Michelle Donelan, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology. Credit: PA

She also served as the Education Secretary for less than 36 hours, giving her the record of the shortest-serving cabinet member in British history.

But perhaps most distinctive about Ms Donelan is that she is not standing in her Chippenham seat, but the new Melksham and Devizes constituency.

Ms Donelan has previously been elected three times on comfortable five-figure majorities but the threat in this part of Wiltshire is most likely to come from the Liberal Democrats.

A number of polls forecast that Ms Donelan will retain her new seat - but this could all change on polling day.

Ms Donelan is standing against Malcolm Cupis (Reform UK), Brian Matthew (Liberal Democrats), Kerry Postlewhite (Labour) and Catherine Read (Green).

  • Mark Harper - Forest of Dean

The Transport Secretary, who has represented the Forest of Dean since 2005, has been successfully elected five times and last won a healthy majority of 15,869, beating Labour's candidate.

Mr Harper, who was born in Swindon, has held multiple offices previously, including Chief Whip, Immigration Minister and Minister for Disabled People, all under the premiership of Lord Cameron.

The Transport Secretary may be in one of the safer Conservative seats in the West Country. Credit: PA.

The former accountant has grown his majority since he was first elected 19 years ago, with his most recent election the most successful in almost a decade.

His constituency is one of the few that has not been affected by the 2023 boundary changes. But it previously elected a Labour MP between the seat's re-emergence in 1997 and 2005.

This is also the first time the seat has been contested by Reform UK, who are looking to steal votes from both Labour and the Conservatives. It is likely to be a close competition, with some polls predicting a Labour gain in the Forest of Dean, and others forecasting a Conservative hold.

Mr Harper is standing against Matt Bishop (Labour), Stanley Goodin (Reform UK), James Joyce (Liberal Democrat), Chris McFarling (Green) and Saiham Sikder (Socialist Labour).

  • Johnny Mercer - Plymouth Moor View

Johnny Mercer, who has represented Plymouth Moor View since 2015, is currently battling off an attack by Labour, who hope to win this seat on election night.

The Veterans' Minister has spoken widely about his former career as a Captain in the army, and his three tours in Afghanistan - which he hopes speaks to a city home to many military families.

Mr Mercer has also steadily built up his majority over his nine years representing the seat. First created in 2010, Plymouth Moor View was won by Labour on a majority of just over 1,500 votes.

The following election, Johnny Mercer stood to represent the area and beat his Labour opponent by slightly more than 1,000 votes. This has since ballooned to majorities of 5,019 and 12,897 in the 2017 and 2019 general elections respectively.

Johnny Mercer has grown successfully grown his vote since first being elected - but his seat is now being targeted by Labour.

But Labour is determined to match like-for-like in a bid to capture Plymouth Moor View.

Fred Thomas, a former Captain in the Royal Marines, has been leading the charge against Mr Mercer and the pair recently came into conflict over their military records at a hustings in the city.

Mr Mercer has accused Mr Thomas of lying about taking part in combat missions while serving in war zones, something that Labour's candidate has denied. Mr Thomas has emphasised that he is "unable to discuss" much of his military service.

Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer (left) is defending a healthy majority against Labour military man Fred Thomas. Credit: PA/ITV.

For both men, the question is whether the Conservatives' most recent majority of almost 13,000 votes can be reversed come 4 July. Labour certainly hopes it can - leader Sir Keir Starmer's intervention into the pair's row over their military service is a clear sign of this - but the Conservative Party is hopeful that Mr Mercer will cling on.

The pair are also competing against Shaun Hooper (Reform UK), Sarah Martin (Liberal Democrat) and Georgia Nelson (Green).

  • Rebecca Pow - Taunton and Wellington

Rebecca Pow, Nature Minister, is another West Country MP standing in a new seat after her old constituency was scrapped.

You can read more about the impact those boundary changes have had in the West Country here.

Ms Pow has successfully represented the area since 2015, having won the seat from the incumbent Liberal Democrat MP.

Her majority fell slightly in 2019 to 11,700 from more than 15,000 in the previous two elections. But it is worth noting Ms Pow has consistently boosted her share of the vote regardless, from 48% in 2015 up to 54% at the last election.

Gideon Amos hopes to unseat Conservative candidate and Nature Minister Rebecca Pow. Credit: PA/ITV.

Her new constituency of Taunton and Wellington is being targeted by the Liberal Democrats.

Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, views Somerset as the party's traditional heartland and hopes to restore this on 4 May.

Gideon Amos is standing in the new seat for the Lib Dems, lives in Taunton and is a small business owner. His campaign launch was endorsed by Sir Ed, who sent a video message declaring his belief that the party can win the seat.

Watch ITV West Country's full report on the Taunton and Wellington seat, including the full list of candidates, here.

  • Mel Stride - Central Devon

Mel Stride has represented Central Devon since 2010 and is currently the Work and Pensions Secretary.

He is a Sunak-supporter, having helped the Prime Minister with both of his Conservative Party leadership contests in 2022, serving as campaign chief. This earned him a promotion to the frontbench.

He has previously served as Leader of the House of Commons before he was replaced by fellow West Country MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Work and Pensions secretary Mel Stride. Credit: PA

Mr Stride has also represented Central Devon since the seat was created and has won an absolute majority - where he received more than half of all votes cast - at every general election since 2010.

Labour has routinely come a distant second in this seat.

Mel Stride is standing against Jeffrey Leeks (Reform UK), Ollie Pearson (Labour), Arthur Price (independent), Gill Westcott (Green) and Mark Wooding (Liberal Democrat).

  • Other senior figures in government

There are a number of other Conservative politicians in the West Country who deserve an honourable mention.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Business Secretary and Leader of the House of Commons, is in a tough battle to hold onto the new seat of North East Somerset and Hanham.

Mr Rees-Mogg has represented the seat's predecessor since 2010, when he took it from Labour politician Dan Norris. Now Mr Norris is standing against Mr Rees-Mogg and the seat has been redrawn to include more urban areas of South Gloucestershire. For a full list of candidates and to read more on the battle of old rivals, click here.

Jacob Rees-Mogg (left), Sir Geoffrey Cox in his constituency with the Prime Minister in June 2024 and Sir Liam Fox. Credit: PA.

Sir Liam Fox, the former Defence Secretary, is sitting on a comfortable majority of 17,536 in North Somerset - a seat that has elected Conservative MPs since 1950.

He is standing against Sadik Al-Hassan (Labour), Suneil Basu (Workers Party), Ashley Cartman (Liberal Democrats) Alexander Kokkinoftas (Reform UK) and Oscar Livesey-Lodwick (Green).

Sir Geoffrey Cox, the former Attorney General, has represented Torridge and West Devon since 2005, most recently winning a majority of 24,992. His seat has now been abolished and he is contesting the new Torridge and Tavistock constituency. It's an area of the West Country the Liberal Democrats could take back on a particularly bad night for the Tories.

He is running against Phil Hutty (Liberal Democrat), Andrew Jackson (Reform UK), Judy Maciejowska (Green), Alan Edward Rayner (indepdendent) and Isabel Saxby (Labour).

  • Labour candidates hoping to win and take a seat at the Cabinet table

Thangam Debbonaire is standing in the new constituency of Bristol Central and would become the Culture Secretary if she wins - but Ms Debbonaire has a close battle.

Despite winning a thumping majority of 28,219 in her old seat of Bristol West in 2019, boundary changes and the Green Party's Carla Denyer make her return to Parliament less than a guarantee. The co-leader of the Greens is standing in the new seat and hopes to take this from Ms Debbonaire. She is said to be feeling confident after her party won all the wards that make up the constituency in the local elections last month.

ITV West Country's full report on the constituency and a list of all the candidates can be found here.

Darren Jones is a Labour politician who has represented Bristol North West since 2017. His majority in the last election in 2019 was not huge at 5,692, but his seat is considered relatively safe.

The constituency's Conservative candidate Laura Saunders had her support withdrawn on 25 June by the Party after she was implicated in the General Election betting row.

Labour candidates Darren Jones (Bristol North West) and Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol Central) are hoping to form part of the next Government. Credit: PA/ITV.

Mr Jones is currently the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury so should Labour win, he can expect a place in the Cabinet.

He is competing against Ms Saunders, Caroline Gooch (Liberal Democrat), Scarlett O'Connor (Reform UK), Mary Page (Green) and Ben Smith (SDP).

A number of other Labour politicians in the West Country could also take up junior ministerial positions should Labour win the General Election.

But all eyes are on the polls as expectations grow about which party will win and who will get to take a seat at the Cabinet Table come 5 July.