Eluned Morgan set to become First Minister of Wales and inherit toughest task in 25 years

Eluned Morgan is set to be confirmed as the next First Minister of Wales, and the first woman to fill the role, in a special meeting of the Senedd on Tuesday, 6 August.

The current health secretary became leader of Welsh Labour on 24 July after no other candidate came forward in the leadership election to replace Vaughan Gething.

He said he would resign just four months after taking the top job, following an intense period of controversy and criticism including over donations to his leadership campaign and the sacking of a cabinet minister.

What will happen today?

What will happen on Tuesday is the formal process of choosing a first minister and Senedd members are being recalled from their summer recess to carry out that process.

It is the first time the Welsh Parliament has been recalled for that purpose since devolution began in 1999. Previous recalls have been to discuss pressing matters like the Covid pandemic, Brexit and the future of the steel industry.

The last time it was recalled was in September 2022 to pay tribute following the death of HM Queen Elizabeth II.

This time, it is meeting in what is known as hybrid form, meaning that some members will be in the chamber in Cardiff Bay while others will attend and vote virtually.

Arrangements have also been made to allow MSs who are overseas to play their part. Previously that wasn’t allowed.

Voting is done via a 'roll call' in which Senedd members are called in alphabetical order to say who they want to be first minister.

Labour members are expected to nominate Eluned Morgan while the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru will nominate their own leaders.

Labour is the largest party in the Senedd but doesn’t have a majority so if all three opposition parties join forces they could block Eluned Morgan’s nomination.

However, Liberal Democrat leader Jane Dodds is expected to abstain, meaning Ms Morgan is almost certain to be chosen.

Once that decision has been taken, the Llywydd or Presiding Officer, Elin Jones, will contact the King to inform him of the Senedd’s choice.

At some point during the afternoon, the King will confirm he has appointed Eluned Morgan to be first minister after which she will swear her oath of office in front of a judge.

What next?

After that, the hard work begins.

Her first task will be to appoint a cabinet. Given how deeply divided the Labour group has been in the last few months, that won’t be an easy job.

Should she appoint her predecessor Vaughan Gething or does she need to put further distance between her time in charge and the divisive period of his time?

Who will take over from Eluned Morgan in health? There’s speculation that the former economy secretary, Jeremy Miles, will be given the job.

He stood in the leadership election which Vaughan Gething won but decided not to stand this time in the interests of party unity.

For many Gething supporters, Mr Miles is seen as being part of the problems which engulfed their party this year, which could lead to problems further down the line.

The all-important budget

I’m told that the Labour group is determined to put aside its differences and heal its wounds, but those wounds are deep and healing them won’t be easy.

Not only that but the new first minister will need to reach out to other parties because Labour’s lack of majority means it will need the support or abstention of at least one of the opposition groups (including the single Lib Dem MS) to pass legislation and, more crucially, its budget.

That had become an impossibility under Vaughan Gething because all opposition members had voted against him in a confidence vote, making it unlikely that any deal could change their mind.

Eluned Morgan will have to start talks straight away if they haven’t already begun with the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, to see what would persuade them to allow her budget to pass at the end of the year.

If she can’t do that, then we really are in uncharted waters. If a first minister can’t govern, it could lead to an early Senedd election when the next one isn’t due to be held until 2026.

That’s certainly what Plaid Cymru is calling for, pointing out that Labour politicians regularly called for a UK election when the Conservatives had three prime ministers in one year without an election.

Now that there have been three first ministers in one year, Plaid Cymru argues that voters here in Wales should be given a say. It’s a view that has been shared by some within Welsh Labour, too, though I detect that the appetite for that may have gone away.

Early or not, an election is very much on Labour’s minds.

Many within the party here in Wales think they are on course for a hammering in 2026, something borne out by recent research from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, a hammering likely to be made worse by a new, proportional voting system which Labour itself (with the support of Plaid Cymru) is introducing.

New FM has most difficult task in 25 years

So, in a short space of time, Eluned Morgan has to unite the divided Labour group in the Senedd, reach deals with opposition parties that will enable her to get a budget and future legislation as well as persuading voters to give her party another chance in 2026 at a time when funding is shrinking and the ability to blame Conservative UK governments has disappeared.

All of that means that she’s about to have the most difficult task of any FM in 25 years, but one thing that might help her is her own experience in politics.

It may sound strange to describe anyone who’s a Baroness and has been in elected Labour politics for 30 years as an underdog, but in some ways she has been just that.

She has been seen as too ‘Blairite’ for many on the left in Welsh Labour and too left-wing for many in the centre. She nearly didn’t make it to the ballot in 2018’s leadership election, only Carwyn Jones ‘lending’ his nomination to ensure a woman was in the contest enabled her to stand.

Now with the odds so heavily stacked against her, as well as being the first female first minister, she could also be the first underdog first minister.

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