Eluned Morgan could be Wales' first female leader - but can she repair a fragmented Senedd?

She will replace Vaughan Gething, who announced his resignation last week, after a torrid four months in office featuring rows over donations and sacked ministers. Credit: ITV News

When Vaughan Gething announced he would resign as first minister and leader of Welsh Labour, there were some who feared another bitter leadership battle would follow, and would drive the party further apart.

More infighting could even have led to a snap Senedd election.In the end, those concerns were unfounded. It became clear that allies of Vaughan Gething would not accept his rival Jeremy Miles as leader.

Within days, the frontrunner had thrown his weight behind the health secretary Eluned Morgan, who emerged as the candidate to unite the party on a so-called “joint ticket” with Huw Irranca-Davies who would be her deputy.The 57-year-old will be the first woman to lead Welsh Labour and, if elected by Senedd members, the first female First Minister of Wales.

It may be a historic moment, but there will be little time to celebrate. Her first task will be to repair fragmented relations in the Senedd after months of infighting.

Even should this be achieved, she faces a perfect storm of issues ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election.The wipeout of the Conservative Party in Wales in this month’s general election papered over some widening cracks in their support.

Their vote share actually fell by 4%, they failed to topple Plaid Cymru in Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin, and Reform UK surged into second place in nearly half of all Welsh seats.

The Welsh Labour Government is also under pressure over record-breaking NHS waiting lists, plummeting standards in education and a string of unpopular recent policies including default 20mph speed limits in residential areas.

One recent opinion poll put Welsh Labour’s support at a historically low 27%.

According to professor of Welsh Politics at Cardiff University Richard Wyn Jones, these factors mean Labour could be facing the “unthinkable” in 2026, an election in Wales in which they do not emerge as the largest party.

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