Conservatives face 'huge blow' and Reform UK popularity surges - ITV Wales poll

• ITV Wales' National Correspondent, Rob Osborne, has the latest.

The Conservatives have slumped to a record low in Wales, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales poll which shows the party is neck-and-neck with support for Nigel Farage's Reform UK.

A Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University has revealed that the Conservatives' predicted vote share in the General Election - 16% - would be lower than the amount they won in 1997 (19.6%) which saw not a single Welsh Conservative MP elected.

It is the Conservatives' worst ever YouGov poll result in Wales and, if replicated on election day, would represent the worst Conservative performance in Wales since the 1918 General Election.

The Barn Cymru poll suggested that 40% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in the upcoming General Election, down 5% since our previous poll in June.

Westminster voting intention (MRP model) and comparison to June poll result:

• Labour: 40% (-5)

• Conservatives: 16% (-2)

• Reform UK: 16% (+3)

• Plaid Cymru: 14% (+2)

• Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2)

• Green: 5% (+1)

• Other: 2% (+1)

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, said the results are a "huge blow" to the Conservatives, showing how the "Brexit coalition which propelled the Tories to one of their best ever Welsh results in 2019 has collapsed".

He said: "Leave voters are now almost evenly split between Conservatives and Remain, with Labour also picking off a fifth of this group.

"They are also unable to count on any substantial support from those under the age of 65, with the steep age gradient we observed in the EU referendum now working against the Conservatives.

"The Westminster vote intention figures in this Barn Cymru poll are for the first time derived from an MRP model. This means taking a regular opinion poll - with a slightly larger sample size than normal - and using information from the census to estimate how different groups in Wales will vote."

What does this poll result mean for Labour?

While Labour is on course to make "substantial gains", the party's popularity in Wales has dipped in recent months. In the past month, Labour have lost 5% of voters when comparing ITV Cymru Wales' Westminster voting intentions in June and July.

Dr Larner said: "While Labour’s numbers are about the same as 2019, an election which saw the party sink to its fewest seats in decades, they will be facing much weaker opposition in most seats as a result of this Conservative collapse.

"As such, they can expect to make substantial gains in current Conservative seats but may not fare as well in the two Plaid Cymru-Labour marginals: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin."

The latest poll numbers suggest Labour have not actually managed to grow their support substantially since 2019 when they polled at 41%.

Dr Larner added: "While they have gained votes from previous Conservative voters (around 10%) they have also lost votes to Plaid Cymru and the Greens. However, in the majority of their target seats they now face a much weaker Conservative Party, suggesting they are on course to make substantial gains across Wales."

Reform UK’s highest vote intention figures to date

Dr Larner says Nigel Farage's party has capitalised on the collapse of Conservative support with nearly a third of previous Conservative voters now saying they will vote for Reform UK.

He added: "While they are very unlikely to challenge for any seats in Wales, it's possible they will finish the elections as the second largest party in terms of vote share in Wales.

"Like all opinion polls, it's important to remember that there is still a margin of error and this is only one poll. But it is consistent with wider trends in previous Barn Cymru polls and UK polling trends which shows the Conservatives heading for an historic defeat."

Westminster voting intention in our last poll in June 2024 (compared to December 2023):

• Labour: 45% (+3)

• Conservatives: 18% (-2)

• Reform UK: 13% (+1)

• Plaid Cymru: 12% (-3)

• Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)

• Green: 4% (+1)

• Other: 1%

ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor Adrian Masters warns of longer term problems for Labour:

The latest Barn Cymru poll may give Labour pause for thought about its support here in Wales in the longer term, but the news is far worse and far more pressing for the Conservatives.

Not only will that figure horrify Tories here, so too will the fact that the poll puts them level-pegging with Reform UK, a symbolic first that the party will not have wanted to see.

The poll will bolster Plaid Cymru’s hopes of reaching three or four seats and encourage the Liberal Democrats in their belief that they could have a Welsh MP once again.

But should Labour be worried about its reduced share? The fact that it’s slipping could suggest that the Conservatives’ strategy of warning against a supermajority is having an effect or it could reflect that sustained public criticism of Labour’s record in Welsh Government is cutting through, as is criticism of the still-new Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Vaughan Gething. And while the indications are that none of that will materially affect the results this week, it could suggest some longer-term problems for Labour here in Wales.

• YouGov’s total sample size for the Westminster Voting Intentions MPR Model was 3,439 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between June 19-30. YouGov’s total sample size for all other questions was 1,072 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between June 27-July 1.

• For more political debate and discussion, plus a longer interview with Dr Jac Larner, watch Sharp End, ITV Cymru Wales, at 11.15pm on Tuesday, 2 July. You can catch up on ITVX here.