Why Wales is closely watching Melbourne's second wave of coronavirus
Australia has been among the world’s most successful countries in containing its coronavirus outbreak - with one exception.
Melbourne, the country's second-largest city, has seen a spike in new coronavirus infections and its five million residents are now in full lockdown again.
Forty suburbs classed as virus hot spots have been locked down by postal code since last week, with the result that businesses and households in some areas face restrictions while ones across the street from them do not.
On Friday, the First Minister said new Covid-19 cases are currently falling by about 2% every day in Wales, but sounded "a note of caution" based on the situation in Melbourne.
"On 9 June, the city of Melbourne in Australia recorded a day when there were only two new confirmed case of coronavirus. Today, five million people are in full lockdown again", Mark Drakeford told the daily briefing.
"That’s how quickly things can go wrong", he added.
Mr Drakeford's warning came as it was confirmed that a number of easements were being made to the current lockdown restrictions in Wales.
Hairdressers can now reopen by appointment only, while pubs and restaurants can reopen outdoors.
And there have been no reported coronavirus deaths in Wales three times in the past seven days.
But it's perhaps unsurprising that the Welsh Government is looking across the world to Australia with concern, given how well the country has managed to previously control the spread of the virus.
"We could find all our hard work undone", Mark Drakeford warned the people of Wales on Friday.
"Unless we all go on playing our part, every day, and in every way we can, to keep Wales safe."
Why is Melbourne experiencing a second wave?
Most if not all the blame is being directed at lax controls at quarantine centres set up in two Melbourne hotels.
Australian citizens and permanent residents returning from overseas are required to spend 14 days in strict hotel quarantine.
Genomic sequencing that identities which virus strains are circulating in specific clusters indicates the city’s expanding outbreak is emerging from hotel quarantine guards and guests.
Critics blame a decision to use private security contractors to enforce the quarantine.
Sydney, Australia’s largest city, which in the early days of the pandemic had the country’s highest number of daily new cases, chose to use police and the military to provide hotel security, with greater apparent success.
Catherine Bennett, an epidemiologist at Melbourne’s Deakin University, said the city could be having similar success as the rest of Australia in virtually eliminating community transmission if not for the hotel quarantine breaches that allowed security guards to bring the virus home to their suburbs.
“We’ve had multiple positive people take the virus home at the same time into extensive multi-household families just after Victoria had relaxed its restrictions,” said Bennett, who lives outside the 40 shutdown suburbs.
“Luck comes into it. You just need one person positive in a setting where it can take off to have a problem. That setting probably exists in cities all around Australia,” she said.