Will we get a white Christmas? Latest data changes the outlook on snow falling for Christmas 2024

A White Christmas at Coxwold near Helmsley in North Yorkshire producing seasonal views for walkers in 2009. Credit: PA
It's been nearly 15 years since the UK saw white-out scenes like these - but a white Christmas is more common than you might think. Credit: PA

It's just over a week to go now... so are you dreaming of a white Christmas?

It's the question we meteorologists get asked the most, sometimes as early as late summer, and it's one of the bookies' favourite bets.

As we approach 25 December, the forecast becomes clearer. If you'd asked me last week, my answer was still that it's too far out to tell.

However, weather models are starting to come into line, giving us an idea of the type of Christmas we're likely to see.

And this year, it looks like high pressure will be the driving force.

This means - drum roll, please - it looks to be mostly quiet and settled for the majority of us, but most importantly it looks to be mild.

Too mild for snow? Could there still be a festive flurry? Let's dig deeper...

The odds on a whiteout are low, but don't lose hope of a white Christmas. Credit: PA

What makes a white Christmas?

For a white Christmas to be declared in the UK, one single snowflake has to be observed falling during the 24-hour period on 25 December at one of the Met Office observing sites.

From this definition, a white Christmas actually happens quite a lot. In fact, more than half of Christmases have technically been white, with snow falling somewhere in the UK.

The last white Christmas in the UK was last Christmas. In 2023, 11% of sites reported falling snow.

But if you want that picture perfect Christmas, with snow blanketing the landscape, you have to go back to 2010, when more than 80% of the country recorded snow lying on the ground.

Christmas Day 2010 when snow was recored at over 80% of observing sites in the UK Credit: NASA

Statistically, you're more likely to see a white Christmas the further north you are and the higher above sea level.

With this in mind, the majority of the UK this year looks to be under the influence of high pressure. We expect it to be rather cloudy, often windy and mild.

There is a chance, some wintry flurries may fall over the Scottish and possibly the Welsh hills.

If this were to happen and at least one site reports falling snow, 2024 would be a white Christmas.

With this in mind, our current thinking is that it might be.

However, if you are desperate to see that perfect winter wonderland scene, then I hate to be the bearer of bad news, as that really doesn't look likely.

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