Prison plans could cost an ‘extra £4bn and be short of 12,400 cell spaces by 2027’

A "damning" report from Whitehall’s spending watchdog warns that the government’s plans to increase prison capacity could fall short by thousands of cells within two years, costing taxpayers billions more than expected.

The National Audit Office (NAO) said current expansion plans are “insufficient to meet future demand,” with a projected shortage of 12,400 prison places by 2027 and costs expected to exceed initial estimates by at least £4 billion.

The watchdog's report, published on Wednesday, blames the previous Conservative government for failing to ensure that longer jail sentences and increased police numbers were supported by adequate prison space.

It stated: “Years of under-investment in maintaining the prison estate put MoJ and HMPPS in a weak position to respond to these increases.”

Chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust, Pia Sinha, described the findings as “damning” and said they laid bare the “negligence of previous governments and their approach to penal policy” which has left taxpayers facing an “eye-watering bill with no certainty on when the ongoing prison capacity crisis will end”.

The government's 2021 pledge to add 20,000 cell spaces is now expected to be delayed until 2031, five years later than promised and only one-third (6,518) has been made available so far, according to the NAO.

Delays are due to "unrealistic timelines" and overestimating the ability to secure planning permission for three of the six new prisons planned for construction.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chairman of the Commons Public Accounts Committee which scrutinises government spending, said prisons were “already at the brink” and it was “unacceptable” that plans “beset with delays” would not meet future demand.

“The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has been in firefighting mode, prioritising short-term solutions to the crisis. These are not only expensive but also increase risks to prisoner, staff and public safety.

“The Government must pull together a coherent and viable long-term plan for a prison estate that meets demand and delivers value for taxpayers’ money,” he added.

The NAO also warned the government department “does not have any contingency plans to increase prison capacity as it views it has limited options left to do this”.

The director of the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, Richard Garside, described governments and parliament as being “joint architects of a decade-in-the-making prisons crisis”.

He called on policy and lawmakers to “set a fresh course, aimed at containing prison population growth in the short-term and reducing it in the medium to long-term”.

Since September, the government has been releasing thousands of inmates early to reduce overcrowding, temporarily lowering the proportion of sentences some prisoners must serve in England and Wales from 50% to 40% but prisons are still expected to reach critical capacity again by July.

MoJ figures show there were 86,059 adult prisoners behind bars in England and Wales on Monday, slightly higher than the 86,038 recorded at the beginning of last week.

The so-called operational capacity for English and Welsh men and women’s prisons is 88,852, indicating there is now cell space for 2,793 criminals.

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The latest data means the prison population is only 2.8% lower than when the number of inmates being held hit a new record high of 88,521 on September 6, PA news agency analysis shows.

An additional 1,350 cell spaces tend to always be kept free above the overall operational capacity of the prison estate in England and Wales as a contingency measure so jails can cope with a sudden influx of inmates or change in the make-up of the prison population, according to the MoJ.

Head of the NAO Gareth Davies said: “The Government must learn lessons from the current prison capacity crisis to ensure the long-term resilience and cost effectiveness of the prison estate.”

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