2024 'almost certain' to be hottest year on record as temperatures breach 1.5C target
Extreme weather is becoming more common as our climate continues to change and warm, as ITV News' Fred Dimbleby reports
This year is “virtually certain” to be the world’s hottest on record, with temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial times for the first time.
Global temperatures from January to October were 0.71C higher than the average from 1991-2020, the highest record for the period, data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) shows.
This is 0.16C higher than the same period for 2023 - the world's hottest year to date.
As a result, scientists have said it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record.
The figures come as California battles its latest wildfire which has destroyed dozens of homes and forced thousands to evacuate.
Forecasters warned of the potential for "extreme and life-threatening" blazes as strong winds fed a fast-moving wildfire.
The blaze was burning in a region that has seen some of California’s most destructive fires over the years.
According to the European dataset, as 2023 was 1.48C above pre-industrial levels, it is also virtually certain 2024 will be more than 1.5C higher than before the industrial revolution - and likely more than 1.55C higher.
That would mean the world has breached – temporarily at least – a key threshold in the fight against dangerous climate change.
Under the Paris climate agreement, countries are committed to action to limit temperature rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to keep them to 1.5C, beyond which the most devastating impacts of storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves, nature loss and rising seas are expected.
The data also shows that October 2024 was the second-warmest month globally, second only to October 2023, and was 1.65C above pre-industrial levels.
It was the 15th month in a 16-month period that the global average air temperature was more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
The figures come as countries prepare to meet for the latest round of UN climate talks, Cop29, in Azerbaijan.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said: “After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset.
“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference, Cop29.”
As Cop29 begins next week, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is due to publish an overarching analysis of global temperatures in 2024, drawing on a series of datasets including the ERA5 data.
Responding to the figures, Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said: “The time for dither and delay is long gone. We need global leaders to smash the emergency glass now and do everything in their power to prevent further harm."
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