How a re-elected Trump and Republican Whitehouse will impact US-China relations
Donald Trump’s return to the Whitehouse will not change the Chinese Communist Party's plans to take control of Taiwan.
It is not a question of if Xi Jinping wants reunification, it is a question of when and how he plans to do it. He has talked of peaceful reunification, but has not ruled out taking the island by military force.
The fear in Taiwan is that President Trump will step back from the pledges made by the Biden administration committing the United States to a military defence of the island.
Joe Biden moved away from decades of strategic ambiguity to give his assurances to Taiwan that the island would have American military support in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The Democrats also sent billions of dollars worth of military equipment.
What could be the final package - worth $2bn - was approved just last month and for the first time, it included a missile defence system that has also been deployed in Ukraine.
During the campaign Trump suggested he would want Taiwan to start paying more for its own defence, indicating his administration would not be willing to act like an insurance policy.
Without the guarantee of US support, there would be less of a deterrent for China to end the current status quo using military force.
A conflict in Taiwan could draw in US allies like South Korea, Japan and the Philippines who will now be working on channels to reach President Trump and shore up their own security.
The 'China threat'
It was President Trump who started the ‘China threat’ narrative during his first term in office, he launched a trade war, and he banned Chinese tech companies like Huawei from the US, ushering in bans in Europe and the UK.
He’s warned of tougher measures during his second term, mentioning tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese goods, but he’s also talked about allowing Chinese car manufacturers to build factories in the United States.
The Chinese government is meeting this week to discuss a new package of economic stimulus to boost the country’s already faltering economy.
The measures, expected to be announced on Friday, will likely have been adjusted to brace for the impact of another potential Trump trade war.
Whatever his approach to China will be, although he will be dealing with the same leader, in the last four years Xi Jinping has assumed a far more assertive role in the world, making no secret of his desire for a new global order.
This week President Xi is hosting the Presidents of Italy and Indonesia as well as the leaders of Malaysia, Slovakia and Mongolia.
A State media article suggested these visits show China has become a guardian of global stability, in a turbulent international landscape - suggesting America, soon to be back under the leadership of Donald Trump, has lost its crown.
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