How might Trump's return impact the war in Ukraine?

How might Donald Trump's return impact Europe and the war in Ukraine? ITV News Europe Editor James Mates breaks down the situation

In his victory speech, Donald Trump vowed to stop wars, not to start them.

It is a message as popular in America as it is unwelcome in Ukraine where such soundbites might signal the difference between life and death – or national existence or extinction.

Put simply, Kyiv could not continue its fight against invading Russian forces without US support - billions upon billions of dollars of arms, ammunition and hardware.

And although Joe Biden hasn’t always given President Zelenskyy all he wants, there seemed little doubt of his genuine affinity with Ukraine’s cause.

Under President Trump – with his admiration for Vladimir Putin – everything is in doubt.

If Kyiv looks to the rest of its Western allies to take up any slack they will be disappointed. There isn’t the industrial or financial capacity, let alone the political will to fill any void left by America.

Zelenskyy’s best hope is that in office, Trump will be made to see it is not possible to end the war in a single day or wise to turn off the financial tap.

But there was a telling line in his congratulatory message to the President-elect.

"We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States," Zelenskyy said.

Nato’s new secretary general Mark Rutte didn’t explicitly mention Ukraine in his message to Trump."

We face a growing number of challenges globally, from a more aggressive Russia to terrorism, to strategic competition with China, as well the increasing alignment of China, Russia, North Korea and Iran," he said.

Rutte has the much broader task to convince Trump that Nato is an essential component of American security and that Ukraine’s defence is part and parcel of a bigger picture.

Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox every Friday morning.

If Trump tries to force on Ukraine a peace deal – sacrificing a large chunk of territory - there is no guarantee of course that Putin would accept it.

An unpredictable world just got even less predictable. And for Ukraine, a lot more dangerous.

Want an expert briefing on US politics and the presidential race? Listen to our latest podcast Talking Politics USA