Jenrick still favourite but could James Cleverly surge change the shape of the race?  

Two things contributed to the unusually buoyant mood at the Conservative Party conference this week: the Labour government's early travails, and the excitement of a leadership contest. What is clear is that the shape of that race - and who might win it - is shifting every day.

From Kemi Badenoch as the first favourite, then Robert Jenrick (who remains the one to beat) and now a late surge from James Cleverly after an impressive performance on Wednesday.

Badenoch is well-liked by party members but she has faced a major challenge - her party’s MPs.

It is they who get to choose the final two candidates to be put forward to members and it has been clear for some time that a ‘stop Kemi’ effort is underway. She insists she won’t be stopped but she may have no choice.

And MPs who might have considered swinging behind her are increasingly unsure after a series of missteps.

First, the apparent suggestion that we should cut statutory maternity pay, and then that 5 to 10% of civil servants are so bad that they "should be in jail".And yet, according to polling by Tim Bale’s Party Members project (from Queen Mary and Sussex Universities) Tory members want a leader who is blunt and controversial (with almost half liking the idea of a bit of aggression too).And so the Stop Kemi campaign will infuriate the more supportive members.

I heard some say that they feared a "stitch-up" as they headed out of the hall today in Birmingham.

After listening to 20-minute speeches by each of the four contenders, one admitted they would be deeply disappointed if they did not have the chance to back Badenoch.

But she isn’t the only one to court controversy.

Robert Jenrick, whose slick and well-organised campaign has propelled him into the front-runner position, was criticised for claiming that special forces are killing terrorists because human rights laws prevent them from detaining them.When I saw Tom Tugendhat at the conference, he made it clear to me that he was furious at the suggestion that officers could be breaking the law.

Despite the party’s attempt to avoid Tory on Tory attacks, his critique was not the only attack on an opponent. Cleverly told the hall that the party needed to be a bit more "normal".

Was he suggesting that his opponents weren’t normal I asked him afterwards?

His lack of answer (that they had to answer for their own records) confirmed that was exactly what he was suggesting.

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Cleverly’s speech was full of quips - that made the hall laugh, and jump to its feet in standing ovations, with a very warm response at the end.

It is unquestionable that of the candidates, he has made the most progress in the eyes of MPs - and perhaps members. Behind the scenes, some MPs (and former Cabinet ministers) argued that his presentation was good, but there was not enough substance behind it.

One claimed that in a final two, Jenrick would still "trounce" him.

But it is unquestionable that Cleverly has become a serious contender in this race, and while Jenrick remains the favourite, he has a few weeks yet in which he could change minds.

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