How should Tories choose their next leader?

The Conservative Party is confused - about how to rehabilitate and about who should lead it.There have been races where the winner was blindingly obvious - you could smell the result in the air - even before the formal contest had begun.

That was true for Tony Blair in 1994 and Boris Johnson in 2019.There is no such pong at the Tory conference in Birmingham.Just walking through lobbies and halls, I’ve asked countless Tory members and MPs who they are supporting and who they think will win.Every one of the four candidates - Badenoch, Cleverly, Jenrick and Tugendhat - has their supporters.And although the names Jenrick and Badenoch are mentioned more frequently than others as the eventual victor, there is not the faintest sense that the party has made up its mind.This is unsurprising because what distinguishes them is more about how they say stuff - their personalities and demeanours - than about what they say, their policies.

As I said to Jenrick and Cleverly on the Peston show last night, they are all engaging in displacement activity.

They indeed acknowledge that the government they were part of failed spectacularly, but that’s where useful insight ends.Their only substantive difference is over a question of relatively little relevance or importance to most of those who abandoned their party on 4 July.

That is whether to leave the European Convention on Human Rights with immediate effect, which is Jenrick’s position.

Or whether to have that exit in reserve if all else fails to reduce the numbers seeking asylum in the UK. A position, with nuances of difference, of the other three.By contrast, they are more or less united in a lack of thought on the issues which all the data show were the prime causes of the party’s electoral humiliation.

Namely the precarious condition of the NHS and their party’s perceived economic and fiscal incompetence.None have anything compelling to say about mending the health and prosperity of the nation.

Simply shouting cut taxes and regulations, something they do periodically, is a slogan on a t-shirt - not a plan for prosperity.

And even if you think Starmer and Labour lack detailed strategic direction on how to fix Britain, the prime minister and his colleagues already have the keys to 10 Downing Street.

So, they can say and do more or less what they like for four and a half years.There is no such luxury for the next Tory leader; if he or she wants to be heard by British voters.

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The point is there has never been a time when British voters have been less tribal, less politically committed.

So, even after the Tories’ worst result in 120 years, it would only be ridiculous that they could be contenders at the next election if they chose a flake as their leader.To be clear, one or all may be the crumbliest, flakiest opposition leader. History would suggest such is inevitable.

But how would the party’s members be able to find out and avoid bringing in the clawn, especially when what differentiates the members of this quartet is largely about how they talk and what they look like?

As well as their respective propensities claim to have been misunderstood when talking about maternity pay (Badenoch) or whether the ECHR encourages lethal force by the military when confronting terrorists (Jenrick).

At this rate, we'll have to wait for the next Tory leadership contest to hear how they plan to improve on their actions of the past 14 years or what the current government is doing.

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