'Inevitable that things will go wrong' with early prison release, probation chief warns

Prisons in England and Wales are full. Credit: PA

It is “inevitable that things will go wrong” when prisoners are freed early in response to the overcrowding crisis, according to the Chief Inspector of Probation.

An estimated 5,500 offenders are expected to be released earlier than planned in September and October under the temporary move, which does not apply to those convicted of sex offences, terrorism, domestic abuse or some violent offences.

Those released early will serve the rest of their sentence under “strict” licensing conditions in the community, the government has said, with the prison and probation service given eight weeks to plan for the scheme.

Martin Jones, who became chief inspector in March, told The Times that there are “no risk free options available” although extra strain will be put on the probation service.

Thousands of prisoners are due to be released early. Credit: PA

He said the implementation period has given the probation service “at least a fighting chance of getting this right”, but the volume of offenders being released meant some could re-offend at a time when they would otherwise be in jail.

Mr Jones told the newspaper: “I think it’s inevitable, being realistic about it, that things will go wrong. I wish we could live in a perfect world where that doesn’t happen.

“What I think you should, you should start to see, at least, is that if people have to focus on those, that they start to identify where things go wrong, and they draw lessons from that quite quickly.”

Mr Jones added: “I also think there’s a little bit of a numbers game to some extent, you’re rolling the dice all the time in relation to serious further offences.

“You know, ultimately, if you release thousands of people, a number of those cases will ultimately, sadly, there will be things that will go wrong.”

At least 1,000 new trainee probation officers will be recruited by the end of March 2025, according to the government.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, speaking to broadcasters in Berlin on Wednesday, also said more prisons will be built to manage overcrowding once the government gets its “hands on the planning laws”.

The prime minister has defended the plan despite saying it goes against his instincts as a prosecutor. Credit: PA

He said the lack of prisons being built is one of the reasons for the current capacity crisis in jails across the UK.

Sir Keir previously described the decision to release prisoners early as a difficult one, and “goes against the grain of everything I’ve ever done”.

Parliament last month approved regulations to reduce the amount of time prisoners must spend in jail before they are automatically released, from 50% of their sentence to 40%.

It is understood there were 100 spaces left in men’s prisons in England and Wales on Tuesday.

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The system is normally under greater pressure after a bank holiday weekend, which eases once courts reopen.

On Wednesday, Sir Keir said: “We’ve got to change the planning regulation so we can build the prisons we need because they’re taking far too long, it’s far too slow, and that’s amongst the reasons we’re in the position we are.“

Earlier this week, the prime minister claimed the early release scheme is an essential part of the government’s response to the recent riots and its ability to prosecute perpetrators of the violence.

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