Conservatives set to lose half of their vote in Wales, ITV News poll reveals

The Conservative Party has lost half of its support in Wales since the last UK General Election, according to an exclusive ITV News poll.

Only 19% of Welsh voters said they would vote Conservative, while nearly half of all voters (49%) plan to vote for the Labour Party.

The poll by Savanta found that Reform UK looks set to match Plaid Cymru and win 12% of the vote in Wales.

The survey adds to growing evidence that Labour is heading for a landslide win in Wales with the Tories fighting to avoid a repeat of the 1997 election where they lost every seat in the country.

Voters were also asked how they would vote in a Senedd Election.

Labour looks set to continue to dominate with 41% of the vote while just 21% say they will vote Conservative, down from the 26% vote share the party achieved in the 2021 election.

Plaid Cymru looks set to leapfrog the Welsh Tories and become the second-largest party in the Senedd.

ITV News Wales Reporter Rhys Williams goes through how the survey suggests Labour could get a landslide victory

Westminster voting intention: Labour 49% (+8); Conservative 19% (-17); Plaid Cymru 12% (+2); Reform UK 12% (+7) Liberal Democrat 5% (-1); Green 3% (+2)

Senedd voting intention: Labour 41% (+5); Plaid Cymru 22% (+1); Conservative 21% (-4); Reform 7% (+6); Liberal Democrat 4% (=); Green 3% (-1); Other 2% (-2)

(1,026 Welsh adults, 14-18 June 2024 (all change from 2019 Westminster election and 2021 Senedd election)

Despite the fact that Labour looks set to extend its remarkable electoral dominance in Wales, there are warning signs for the party looking ahead to the 2026 Senedd Election.

Six in ten (58%) say they hold the Welsh government “responsible for the state of public services” in Wales, with around a third (36%) blaming the Conservatives in Westminster.

This is in contrast to a poll last year for Wales Online which found the majority of people blamed the UK government for issues with the Welsh NHS.

The personal ratings of the leader of Welsh Labour are also poor. Just one in seven (15%) Welsh adults say they're satisfied with Mr Gething’s performance as First Minister of Wales, with 40% dissatisfied.

His net favourability of -26 means he is currently more unpopular in Wales than Nigel Farage (-24), and much less popular than Keir Starmer (-1) and Rhun ap Iorwerth (-1) who are the two most popular politicians in Wales.

The good news for Labour is that Mr Gething is at least not as unpopular as the Prime Minister. Rishi Sunak has a net favourability rating of -47.

Emma Levin, Associate Director at Savanta said: “Our research suggests that Labour could significantly strengthen their dominance in Wales at this next election, with their number of Welsh MPs to potentially balloon to the mid-twenties, if these results were replicated on polling day."

"They're not the only grateful recipients of the Conservative Party's collapse, who could potentially slip behind Plaid Cymru into third for Senedd elections as well."

"But it's not all good news for Labour. They're held responsible for the state of public services in Wales, a key election issue.

"And Vaughan Gething is in deep trouble, with low support among the public - his saving grace being that Rishi Sunak is far, far more unpopular."

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