IFS accuses Labour and Tories of 'conspiracy of silence' over General Election manifestos

ITV News Business and Economics Editor Joel Hill explains the economic reality facing the next government.

Words by James Gray, ITV News Producer

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has accused Labour and the Conservatives of presiding over a "conspiracy of silence" on their respective economic polices, as part of its analysis of the major parties' General Election manifestos.

It said both parties had presented the public with a choice of either "higher taxes or worse public services", adding that voters have been left guessing over policy on tax and spending, and on the future size and shape of the state.

The IFS released its analysis on Monday, with its director, Paul Johnson, saying the "raw facts" of the economy - including that UK debt is at its highest level for 60 years - are being "largely ignored by the two main parties in their manifestos".

Mr Johnson said: "They [Labour and Conservatives] have singularly failed even to acknowledge some of the most important issues and choices to have faced us for a very long time."

He added: "Their proposals on tax, benefits and public service spending would be barely enough to detain us in analysing a modest one-year fiscal event.

"They certainly don't answer the big questions facing us over a five-year parliament."

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have both refused to agree with the IFS' analysis

Starmer said that he does not accept the economy "cannot be better than what it is now", while Sunak insisted his party's tax cuts "can deliver" for people at "every stage in their lives".

'I don't accept that defeatism' - Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer reacts to the IFS analysis

Tax

Labour has pledged not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance, with the Tories also ruling out increases for the former two as well as committing to a third 2p reduction as part of a drive to eliminate national insurance altogether.

But the IFS said the decisions have enacted "something of a tax lock arms race", adding both parties have "tied their hands on income tax, NICs, VAT and corporation tax".

The think tank described the tax locks as a "mistake", saying: "They will constrain policy if a future government decides that it does in fact want to raise more money to fund public services.

"They also put serious constraints on tax reform - something which the Conservatives seem to have all but ruled out, and which is notable in the Labour manifesto by its absence."

Have you heard our new podcast Talking Politics? Every day in the run-up to the election Tom, Robert and Anushka dig into the biggest issues dominating the political agenda…

Spending

The IFS called Labour’s day-to-day spending commitments "trivial", criticising Starmer's party for saying little in its manifesto about cuts to working-age benefits - something which the Conservatives plan to reduce by £12 billion a year.

Promises from both parties to improve the NHS were labelled as "unfunded commitments", which imply that cuts to hospital waiting lists and plans to build more hospitals, among other pledges, can be "delivered for free".

"It can't," The IFS' report read. "You can't pledge to end all waits of more than 18 weeks, allocate no money to that pledge, and then claim to have a fully costed manifesto.

"How would either party deal with backlogs in the court system, overflowing prisons, crises in funding of higher and further education, social care, local government? We have not a clue."

Subscribe free to our Election Briefing newsletter here for exclusive and original campaign coverage from ITV News. Direct to your inbox at 5pm every weekday

Lib Dems, Reform and Greens

Additionally, the IFS analysed the manifestos proposed by the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and Green Party.

The Lib Dems - who have pledged to swell taxes by £27 billion to fund a £4 billion boost to the working-age benefit system, among other promises - were praised by the think tank for "some good ideas". Although the IFS said these taxes "would not be victimless".

With regards to Reform and the Greens, the IFS said: "Reform UK and the Greens offer much bigger numbers still.

"The policies they outline are not going to be implemented. But the way they suggest that they have radical ideas which can realistically make a positive difference, when in fact what they propose is wholly unattainable, helps to poison the entire political debate."

Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To Know…