Why is Welsh leader Vaughan Gething facing a no confidence vote - and what could happen next?

When Vaughan Gething became the first black leader of a European nation in March, the historic achievement garnered international attention.

But his honeymoon period as First Minister of Wales was over before it began.

The 50-year-old has been dogged by questions over a £200,000 donation to his leadership campaign by a company whose owner, David Neal, was previously convicted of dumping waste on the Gwent Levels.

There has also been a row over deleted iMessages, and the dramatic sacking of junior minister Hannah Blythyn for leaking information to the media, something she vehemently denies.

Today, Mr Gething will not represent Wales at the national D-Day commemoration in Portsmouth because a vote of no confidence in his leadership has been tabled by the Welsh Conservatives.

Unlike a motion of no-confidence in the government - which would automatically trigger a Senedd election if successful - today’s vote isn’t binding.

Until this morning, it was considered highly unlikely the first minister would lose - that’s because it would involve at least one Labour Senedd member abstaining or voting against Mr Gething.

But then the leader of the Labour group in the Senedd Vikki Howells told BBC Radio Wales the vote was in fact likely to be lost, because two of its MSs are ill.

She wouldn’t say who was too unwell to vote, but I understand them to be the former climate change minister Lee Waters (who was not offered a portfolio when Mr Gething became first minister), and former junior minister Hannah Blythyn, who was recently sacked for allegedly leaking text messages to the media.

There is growing concern within the party too that the issue is beginning to cut through with voters. In an ITV Wales poll published this week, 57% of respondents said they believe Vaughan Gething is performing badly, with 15% saying that he is performing well.

The first minister has insisted he hasn’t broken any rules and he’s been backed by the UK party leader Sir Keir Starmer. But will that support continue if the first minister loses this vote?

For Mr Starmer this is an incredibly unhelpful distraction, and pressure could be put on Wales’s first minister to step aside.

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