England's R number increases as Covid infection rates climb to highest level since February

Covid-19 levels are increasing across all UK nations, latest figures show.

In Scotland, around one in 100 people in private households are estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to July 3 – up from one in 150 in the previous week, and the highest level since the week to January 16.

Around one in 160 people in private households in England had coronavirus in the week to July 3 – up from one in 260 in the previous week and the highest level since February 19.

In Northern Ireland the latest estimate is one in 300 people, up from one in 670 and the highest since the week to April 3.

For Wales, the latest estimate is one in 340 people, up from one in 450 in the previous week and the highest level since the week to February 27.

The figures do not include people living in care homes or those in hospital.

The percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 is estimated to have increased in all regions of England, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The latest figures come as England's R number has increased slightly and is between 1.2 to 1.5, according to the latest government figures.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but when it is below 1, it means the epidemic is shrinking.

An R number between 1.2 and 1.5 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 15 others.

The growth rate is between 3% and 7%, which means the number of new infections is growing by between 3% and 7% every day.

Meanwhile, north-east England and north-west England had the highest proportion of people of any region likely to test positive for coronavirus in the week to July 3: around one in 80.

Eastern England had the lowest estimate: around one in 350.

The rising infection rates come as plans are being made to allow more international travel and may well alarm countries expected an influx of sun-seeking Brits.


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In the week ending July 3, 2021, cases of the Delta variant - B.1.617.2 - have continued to increase in England, Wales and Scotland, and increased in Northern Ireland. The Delta variant continues to be the most common variant across the UK.

Sarah Crofts, Head of Analytical Outputs for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: “We are seeing marked increases in infections across all four UK countries driven by the Delta variant, which continues to be the most common across the UK.

“These increases are widespread - across all regions and age groups in England, similar to levels seen last February.

“As the vaccine rollout continues and restrictions are further lifted, it is crucial that we continue to closely monitor the data.”

When modelling the level of infection among different age ranges in England, the ONS said rates have increased for all groups.

Around one in 45 people from school year 12 to age 24 are estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to July 3, the highest positivity rate for any age group.