Covid: November's lockdown measures wouldn't be enough to keep R number below 1, government told
The national Covid-19 lockdown measures in November, which were introduced to curb the rising number of infections, would not be enough to get the R below 1 in the UK, scientists have warned.
In a paper, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) said the measures would unlikely reduce the R number to less than 1 unless schools and universities are also closed.
An R number below 1.0 is crucial for scientists to have confidence that the prevalence of coronavirus is going down in Britain.
If the number is above 1.0 it means each person with the virus will pass it on to more than one other person.
"Control measures of similar stringency to national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number R to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed," the paper said.
The paper also warned the UK must double its vaccination target to 2,000,000 a week in order to avoid a third wave of the coronavirus.
Around 200,000 people are being vaccinated each week and it has been reported in The Daily Telegraph volunteers will be delivering at least 1,000,000 jabs by the middle of January.
But the paper by the LSHTM says this will not be enough to avoid a third wave of coronavirus that will be even more deadly then the first.
The LSHTM said: "It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden".
The findings from the LSHTM come as Boris Johnson is facing calls to close schools from next week.
Two teaching unions have warned that allowing students to return will put them at risk of catching the new variants of Covid-19.
It comes as a new mutant strain, believed to be around 70% more transmissible than the previous form of coronavirus, is spreading through the UK, leaving the NHS caring for more patients than it was during the April peak.
The UK also recorded its highest daily increase in Covid-19 cases since the pandemic began on Monday, with 41,385 positive results.
As schools prepare to return, it has been reported that the armed forces will support the mass Covid testing of students in England next month, as the government pushes forward with its plan for January.
The government said UK military personnel would be "on standby" to offer support to secondary schools and colleges across England at the start of the spring term.
A total of 1,500 armed forces personnel are being made available to support the Department for Education and Department for Health and Social Care.