Covid: Warnings national Tier 4 measures or higher needed 'to avoid catastrophe in New Year'
Video report by ITV News Correspondent Sejal Karia
"Decisive, early action" is needed to avoid a "catastrophe" in the new year, a member of the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) has said.
Professor Andrew Hayward, of infectious diseases epidemiology at University College London, said widespread Tier 4 restrictions - or even higher - are likely to be needed as the country moves towards “near-lockdown”.
It comes as the UK reported its highest number of daily cases since the pandemic began, with more than 53,000 new Covid cases reported on Tuesday.
ITV News Political Correspondent Carl Dinnen reports stricter measures are likely to be announced on Wednesday:
Five of the seven NHS regions in England are currently reporting a record number of Covid-19 hospital patients - including Eastern England, London, the Midlands, south-east England and south-west England.
The other two regions, north-east and north-west England, remain below peak levels which were set in mid-November.
Professor Hayward told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think we are entering a very dangerous new phase of the pandemic and we’re going to need decisive, early, national action to prevent a catastrophe in January and February.
"A 50% increase in transmissibility means that the previous levels of restrictions that worked before won’t work now, and so Tier 4 restrictions are likely to be necessary or even higher than that.
"I think we’re really looking at a situation where we’re moving into near-lockdown, but we’ve got to learn the lessons from the first lockdown."
It comes as a new mutant strain, believed to be around 70% more transmissible than the previous form of coronavirus, is spreading through the UK, leaving the NHS caring for more patients than it was during the April peak.
Chief executive of NHS England, Sir Simon Stevens, warned healthcare workers are "back in the eye of the storm" due to the second wave of the virus.
In response, the British Medical Association (BMA) urged NHS England to ensure frontline healthcare staff get the vaccine as soon as possible amid concerns there is no "clear prioritisation".
In a letter to Sir Simon, BMA council chair Dr Chaand Nagpaul said there are reports from doctors that they have not had any notification of access to vaccinations or it is being done on a "sporadic and ad hoc basis".
He wrote: "With cases of Covid-19 rocketing and hospitalisation levels higher than in the first peak, healthcare workers are now, as you recognise in your new year message, 'in theeye of the storm'.
"It is therefore imperative that frontline staff are protected from the virus so that they can be available to treat patients.
"If healthcare workers fall ill from being infected and are unable to work it will be devastating for the health service at this time of critical pressures and will compound the problems hospitals and GP practices are already struggling with regarding staffshortages.
"There is also a very real risk of this impeding the roll-out of the vaccine itself which is reliant on delivery by health care staff."
A survey by the BMA in December of doctors in England, Wales and Northern Ireland found half said that the prevalence of staff on sick leave or self-isolating was having an adverse impact on patient care.
Dr Nagpaul added: "We understand that current stocks of vaccines are limited, but with the realistic hope of further supplies and new vaccines which may be soon approved for use in the NHS, now is the time that we need assurance that frontline staff will be vaccinated in a clearly defined systematic and prioritised way."
In his New Year's message, Sir Simon paid tribute to nurses, doctors, therapists and countless other NHS workers who had overcome their "toughest year", as well as cleaners and non-medical staff such as carers, volunteers and care home workers.
He said Covid-19 meant 2020 had “probably been the toughest year most of us can remember”.
“That is certainly true across the health service where we have been responding to the worst pandemic in a century,” he added.
“Many of us have lost family, friends, colleagues and – at a time of year when we would normally be celebrating – a lot of people are understandably feeling anxious, frustrated and tired.
“And now again we are back in the eye of the storm with a second wave of coronavirus sweeping Europe and, indeed, this country.”
But the pandemic had shown that “sometimes the worst of circumstances bring out the best in people”, he added.
In response to the message, Dr Nagpaul wrote: "Your new year message rightly commends the 'dedication and the commitment of countless NHS staff', heralding the 'enormous debt of gratitude' owed to them – to this end, I repeat my request for confirmation of what arrangements will be put in place to address these concerns.
"With doctors and their colleagues 'in the eye of the storm', there can be no delay."
Pressure is continuing to mount on the government to delay further the reopening of secondary schools in January amid concerns about their contribution to rising cases.
Two teaching unions have warned that allowing students to return will put them at risk of catching the new variants of Covid-19.
Ministers have been urged by teaching unions to reconsider the staggered reopening of schools, with educators demanding further action on school safety first.
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Sir Simon suggested that scientific breakthroughs which saw the NHS become the first health service in the world to deliver a coronavirus vaccine outside of a trial may offer some hope for the future.
Margaret Keenan, a 91-year-old British grandmother, became the first patient in the world to receive the Covid-19 vaccine when she was given the jab at University Hospital, Coventry, on December 8.
Sir Simon said: “We think that by late spring with vaccine supplies continuing to come on stream we will have been able to offer all vulnerable people across this country Covid vaccination.
“That perhaps provides the biggest chink of hope for the year ahead.
“But that will only be possible thanks once again to the dedication and the commitment of countless NHS staff – our brilliant GPs, pharmacists, nurses and many many others.
“Therefore now is the right time, I believe, on behalf of the whole country to record our enormous debt of gratitude and our huge thanks.”
His comments come on the day that the patients who received the first vaccinations three weeks ago received their second and final jab.