Weather, complacency and age: Some of the factors that could affect the vote

We are just days away from the 2024 General Election and finding out who will form the UK's next government.

By now, millions of voters will have decided both if they are going to vote, and if so, who for. But there are a number of surprising factors that can affect how voters will decide on the day, which could end up impacting results in constituencies across the West Country.

Among other things, these factors include the weather, age, accessibility and complacency.

Dr Stuart Fox, a senior lecturer in Politics at the University of Exeter, believes these "on-the-day factors" can not only affect which parties receive votes, but also whether people will vote at all.

He believes this will only affect a small number of 'swing voters' - that is those not loyal to any particular party - but that they can have a significant effect on those individuals.

So, what are the factors that affect whether people go out to vote and how could it have an impact in constituencies across the South West?

The weather

"There's been a fair bit of research that looks at whether rainfall, or in some countries, snow or strong winds, can affect how likely people are to vote", said Dr Fox.

According to exports, people who are undecided about voting or those who are not feeling passionate any particular party are far more likely to stay home if there is poor weather on polling day.

This could be as simple as rain showers, and it could have a wider impact if certain groups are less likely to vote.

What is the weather forecast for 4 July in the South West?

Charlie Powell, Weather Forecaster for ITV News West Country said: "The weather looks dry and bright for the majority of polling day, with a bit of a breeze and temperatures still a little below average at 18-19 °C.

"If you're a last minute voter then you may get caught in a bit of rain working in as far as Devon and Cornwall before midnight."

The latest forecast for the South West can be found here.

The Met Office has also highlighted previous general elections which suffered unusual weather conditions.

For example, 13cm of snow fell in Princetown in Devon on the day of the 1979 general election, while there was more than 62mm of rain in Sheepstor in Devon on the day of the election in 1935.

These kind of forecasts are rare, but even less extreme weather can have a real impact on turnout and which party wins individual seats.

Age

Age is another huge factor in determining the results of votes in constituencies, experts say.

This is especially true in the West Country where there are a number of seats in 'university towns' such as Bristol, Exeter and Plymouth.

While young people are less likely to vote in general, this demographic is also most likely to be affected by on-the-day factors such as the weather, or the polling station being far away.

"We are likely to see these [factors] benefit one party over another", said Dr Fox.

"The people most susceptible to on-the-day effects about whether or not they vote - they are often younger people.

"Younger people are less likely to be interested in politics or in a particular election, they're less likely to think that voting in an election is a civic responsibility and they're less likely to have a loyalty or an attachment to a particular party that encourages them to vote no matter the weather.

"So, they are more likely to be affected by these short term factors that might dictate whether or not somebody votes."

• Age can have a surprising impact on the day, according to Dr Stuart Fox

So, if young people are less likely to vote, and young people are most likely to support left-wing parties, could poor weather or a distant polling station benefit the Conservatives?

"On the one hand yes", Dr Fox said.

"Because we've got quite a steep age gradient in this country, in which younger people are much more likely to support the Labour party, and to a lesser extent, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, than the Conservative party, and older people much more likely to support the Conservatives.

"So, that could suggest Labour could be disproportionately affected if it's awful weather on 4 July and young people are less likely to vote."

But Dr Fox added that he did not want to "overstate" the influence of a rainy day and nationally, it can be a more complicated picture.

"A British general election is actually 650 separate elections occurring in all of the constituencies of the UK and differential turnout can only really affect an election result if you've got this sharp gradient - which we do have - but also you have to have these people in roughly similar numbers in the constituency so that if one side turns out in slightly higher numbers than the other, it actually makes a difference.

"There are some constituencies in which that might happen, but these are very, very few."

Complacency - a belief that the election is a 'done deal'

Another issue that can affect more marginal seats is the view that an election has 'already been won' - or is already decided.

This can mean people feel they do not need to vote - even if the race in their own constituency is quite tight.

Dr Fox said: "It's hard to say at this point just how big an impact it will have, but we know that if people think an election is a foregone conclusion and that their vote isn't likely to be particularly important, that they are less likely to vote."

The lowest turnout Britain has had since the Second World War was in 2001, when most people believed a Labour 'landslide' majority was inevitable - and a similar lower turnout happened in 2005 when voters felt the party was going to get another big win regardless.

• Dr Stuart Fox, a politics professor at Exeter University, explains how complacency can affect the vote - and which parties may lose out or benefit

Picking up on the similarities with the 2024 General Election, Dr Fox said: "The fact that the polls, and every poll, for this election and for quite a few months beforehand, have been telling us this is Labour's election to lose and it's a question of how big the Labour party win, not whether they win - that could lead to a number of people thinking 'it doesn't matter that I go out and vote because everybody else is going out to vote'."

This again could have a negative impact for Labour - if thousands of voters believe the party is due a victory and stay home, this could make battles to win tough target seats much more difficult.

Dr Fox also added that not only does this issue disadvantage the leading party, it also actually advantages electoral underdogs.

"If you're really opposed to the Labour party, you are more likely I think to look at this and think: no it's really important that I go out and make my opposition heard.'"

That could be bad news for tight Labour target seats in the West Country, and even places the party is hoping to hold onto against fierce local competition.

For example, while Labour's Bristol Central candidate has a majority of almost 30,000, she is being challenged by the Greens. Should many Labour voters stay home, this could make the race much tighter. Full details on this close race are here.

Accessibility

There are a couple of other, more practical factors that can also affect turnout.

One is how easy it is to get to the polling station - not only for those with disabilities but also for those who are on the fence about whether they can be bothered to vote.

Dr Fox said: "If a polling station is close to your home, if you already know where it is, or if its clearly indicated, then you're much more likely to vote than if the polling station is far away, or you're not sure where it is or if it's hidden away somewhere and it's not very clearly indicated to you.

"These things are likely to impact whether someone is going to vote on the day."

Similarly, even seemingly small things like queues can put some swing-voters off, who are undecided about casting their ballot.

On the day campaigning

Finally, while voters will see no election coverage on their televisions on polling day itself, this does not mean that campaigning stops - and this can have a significant effect.

Dr Fox said: "One of the things that we know makes a difference to whether or not someone votes is actually having someone knock on their door and asking them to go and vote. Perhaps in some cases, reminding people that there's an election on.

"This 'get out the vote' campaign that parties will do on polling day... these things can have an effect. Again, the effect is disproportionately concentrated on those who don't have a strong attachment to any particular party or who don't think voting is a duty. But it will have an effect on that group."

This will have an especially strong effect in marginal - or target - seats, as this is where parties are like to focus their campaigning efforts on the day itself.

"Studies have shown [that] can lead turnout being a bit higher in target or marginal constituencies than safe seats that parties have effectively abandoned", Dr Fox said.

So while parties have spent the last six weeks trying to convince voters through the power of their personality and by publishing manifestos of various detail, for potentially thousands of voters it could all come down to how easy it is to vote and whether someone asks them to.

The full impact of these factors will only become visible in constituencies right across the West Country on 5 July.

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