General Election: Why 'bellwether' Swindon is a 'must win' for Labour

Swindon has been a bellwether town for more than four decades, with voters going in the same direction as the country at every election since 1983.

When the town was split into two constituencies in 1997, that trend continued. Swindon South - as it's now named - was Labour until the Conservatives came to power in 2010.

It has been held by the Tories ever since, mirroring the national political landscape, and is at the very top of Labour's list of target seats in the South West.

With the exception of one visit to Bristol, Sir Keir Starmer has kept his West Country campaign visits exclusively to Swindon - a very clear indication that he wants (and needs) to win in Swindon South.

Most recently the Labour leader visited a supermarket in the constituency with his Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. He told ITV West Country he won't have a "magic wand" to fix the country's problems if he becomes prime minister, but his priority will be "stabilising the economy" from day one.

Labour's renewed focus on Swindon can be traced back to recent local election results.

Keir Starmer launched his 2023 campaign in the town - the same year his party took control of Swindon Borough Council for the first time in 20 years.

In this year's local elections, the party increased its majority on the council again.

It is a clear red-blue battle - one the Conservative former Justice Secretary, Sir Robert Buckland, is fighting tooth and nail to win.

"I've worked with every election never assuming what the result is going to be," he said.

"I stood first 20 years ago, I didn't win, I came back and won in 2010 and I've won every time since. But I've never taken this seat for granted."

'I've never taken this seat for granted' - Sir Robert Buckland, Conservative

Sir Robert hasn't been afraid to speak out against his party, especially over the controversial Rwanda deportation scheme.

He is a member of the centrist One Nation group of Conservatives, who expressed concern that the government's deportation bill would breach the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

The former Justice Secretary is proud of his local record and hopes it pulls him through on 4 July. Watching him speak to voters, it's clear he has a solid level of support.

"Now is the time to stick with the plan that the government has set out, it's succeeding, why change that for a complete blank page and go back to square one with Labour," he told ITV West Country.

"I've got a lot more I want to give. I could have walked away and handed in my cards, but there's so much more I want to deliver for Swindon."

But Swindon South, like many other places across the region, is also populated with a number of undecided voters, Tory switchers, and some who don't want to vote at all.

Labour's candidate, Heidi Alexander, is a former MP and Deputy Mayor of London for Transport.

'People feel things are broken at the moment' - Heidi Alexander, Labour

"People feel that things are broken at the moment. They can't get an NHS dentist, their kids haven't got enough teachers in their schools, it's natural for people to turn around and say they want something different," she said.

I asked if voters feel passionate about her party leader. She said: "People look at the Labour Party and Keir Starmer as the potential prime minister, they can see the changes he has made to the Labour Party and the passion with which he wants to bring change to the country."

While there is also clear support for Heidi Alexander on the doorstep - one man admitted he will be voting Labour this year after decades of voting Conservative - she also has to try and convince undecideds to go with her party.

For the other candidates on the ballot paper, the aim is to raise party profiles. Both the Green Party and Reform UK candidates are telling voters that, given Labour's poll position, they no longer need to vote tactically and can go "with their hearts".

The Liberal Democrats want to encourage voters to seek alternatives, while it focuses on a comeback in large parts of the West Country.

Have you heard our new podcast Talking Politics? Every day in the run-up to the election Tom, Robert and Anushka dig into the biggest issues dominating the political agenda…