The South West seats to watch in the 2024 General Election

Millions of people across the West Country are set to go to the polls to vote for their next MP on 4 July.

Some candidates are confident they will be re-elected as they are standing in safe seats - that is a constituency that has a history of delivering a large majority for one particular party's candidate.

But for others, the election could come down to just a handful of votes - and it is these seats that all parties are now watching.

Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens have what they refer to as 'target seats' - constituencies they would like to win, and where they also believe they have a good chance of doing so.

For the Conservative Party, the challenge this election is to hold onto their safest seats.

Come polling day, these key constituencies could see some of the West Country's most well-known faces finding themselves out of a job - and might even see some politicians take a seat in Parliament for the first time.

So, while hostage to fortune, here are a dozen of the key seats likely to see the tightest battles on polling day.

• Bristol Central: A 'green' chink in Labour's armour?

This is a new seat that the Labour party is battling to keep hold of in the race agains the Greens.

Formerly known as Bristol West, Bristol Central was redrawn in 2023, and is being defended by Labour's Shadow Culture Secretary, Thangam Debbonaire.

The shadow culture secretary has one of Labour's largest majorities - but most polls are predicting a close defeat to the Greens.

Ms Debbonaire is guaranteed a seat around the Cabinet table should Sir Keir Starmer win and is sitting on a majority of 28,219.

But Green Party co-leader and former Bristol councillor Carla Denyer is vying for the seat and is said to be feeling confident.

Just last month, all of the wards that make up the new Bristol Central constituency turned Green during the local elections and the Party says the new boundaries are favourable to Ms Denyer.

The question is whether the Green party can overturn a majority of almost 30,000 at this election and secure their leader a seat, or, whether Labour will be able to avoid losing a cabinet minister on their potential path to victory.

For more analysis on this seat by ITV News West Country's Political Correspondent, Lucy McDaid, as well as a full list of candidates standing, click here.

• Camborne and Redruth: Could Labour gain a foothold in Cornwall?

One of the seats at the top of Labour's target list in Cornwall is Camborne and Redruth, a seat where the incumbent former Conservative MP George Eustice has stepped away.

Labour's Perran Moon is hoping to undo the 8,700 majority won by the Conservatives in 2019. The seat has always voted blue since it's creation in 2019, but the area itself has historically swung between the two main parties.

For the Tories, Connor Donnithorne is standing. He was born in the Duchy and owns a fish and chip restaurant locally. But Mr Moon, who was born in Redruth, is also championing his local credentials.

Although previously a councillor in Oxfordshire, the electric vehicle charging point businessman has returned to the constituency and says it is the only seat he would stand for as an MP.

This election will see seven candidates compete to become the area's next MP but this is seen by pundits as a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour.

Watch ITV West Country's full report on the constituency guaranteed to have a new MP.

• Cheltenham: Is this goodbye for the current Justice Secretary?

Defending this seat is the Justice Secretary and Conservative candidate Alex Chalk.

But his blue majority is wafer thin, with less than 1,000 votes separating Mr Chalk from the Liberal Democrats in 2019.

Now, the Lib Dems would like to paint Cheltenham orange come 4 July, and are re-running the election with former local councillor Max Wilkinson taking on Mr Chalk once more.

Cheltenham is one of the Liberal Democrats' big target seats in the West Country, and was represented by the party between 1992 and 2015. In fact, the party's leader, Sir Ed Davey, is so confident of taking the seat that he launched his party's national election campaign there in May.

The polls also indicate that support for the Liberal Democrats in the seat outstrips that for the Conservatives, which would mean the end of Mr Chalk's nine-year tenure.

Mr Chalk has said he knows he is "the underdog" while discussing his chances with ITV West Country, but believes his record of improving the town means this election is far from a done deal.

Read ITV West Country's full constituency report on Cheltenham here, including a full list of candidates standing.

• Glastonbury and Somerton: Can the Lib Dems win big in Somerset?

A new seat for the 2024 general election, but it is being contested by a politician who was a sitting MP until parliament was dissolved in May.

The Liberal Democrats' Sarah Dyke was first elected to Parliament in 2023 after winning a by-election in Somerton and Frome.

That constituency no longer exists but Ms Dyke is hoping to paint swathes of Somerset orange come 4 July.

She gained a majority of 11,008 in 2023, comfortably beating the Conservative candidate. But by-elections are known to favour parties in opposition to those in government, so there's no guarantee Ms Dyke can relax just yet.

The former seat that partly makes up Glastonbury and Somerton voted Conservative from 2015 until 2023, with David Warburton securing five-figure majorities each time.

But before that, the seat was held by the Liberal Democrats from 1992.

Faye Purbrick is running for the Conservatives here, and is hoping she has better luck than when she ran against Ms Dyke in 2023.

Ms Purbrick, who has been a councillor for the area since 2017, began her publishing career in Somerton, having grown up in Somerset.

They are both competing against Tom Carter (Reform UK), Jon Cousins (Green), and Hal Hooberman (Labour).

• Honiton and Sidmouth: The only South West seat where two MPs are competing

Honiton and Sidmouth is the only constituency to have two incumbent MPs going head to head in the West Country, and one of the only seats to have this unusual arrangement in the country.

Honiton and Sidmouth is a result of the 2023 boundary changes - you can read more about how these have affected seats in the West Country here.

The Conservatives' Simon Jupp and the Liberal Democrats' Richard Foord are going head to head. Both were sitting MPs until Parliament was dissolved for the election.

Simon Jupp has previously represented East Devon, a constituency which has since been abolished, but received a majority of 6,708 at the last election. That seat dates back to 1868 and has never not elected a Conservative MP.

But Richard Foord was elected to Parliament to represent Tiverton and Honiton in a by-election in 2022, on a majority of 6,144.

That means their majorities are just 564 votes apart. The Liberal Democrats have been campaigning in the new seat for the past two years, according to Dr Hannah Bunting, the co-director of the Election Centre at the University of Exeter.

"They've been contacting local businesses, they've been really responsive, they've been a model MP, a model representative party there," she said.

"But once you bring in the fact that the other MP from the other area, the Conservative, has got more of a name recognition and what we call an incumbency effect - they've been there for a long time, people know who they are - then you've got that really interesting head-to-head going on," she added.

• Dr Hannah Bunting on the competition for the Honiton and Sidmouth seat

Now standing in the same seat, both parties are hoping they will be able to win come 4 July.

They will also be fighting for votes against Jake Bonetta (Labour), Paul Quickenden (Reform UK), Henry Gent (Green), Hazel Exon (Party of Women) and Vanessa Coxon (independent).

• North East Somerset and Hanham: A rematch of two old rivals - but with new rules

This seat is one to watch because senior Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg is having a re-match against his long-time rival, Labour's Dan Norris.

But this time, the seat has been redrawn and now Labour views North East Somerset and Hanham as a genuine target - with polls saying they may well be able to gain it.

Mr Rees-Mogg has held multiple cabinet positions, and has represented the former seat of North East Somerset since 2010 - when he beat Mr Norris to the post.

Most recently, he won a comfortable majority of 14,729. But the seat has been adjusted to include more urban areas of South Gloucestershire.

Labour's Dan Norris held the seat's predecessor between 1997 and 2010, and more recently has served as Metro Mayor for the West of England.

Both candidates believe they have the momentum and the recognition to win the seat this time.

If Jacob Rees-Mogg were to lose his seat, this would be a big upset for the Conservatives in the West Country. But if Dan Norris failed to gain the seat, this might be an indicator that polling has been too generous to Labour and that murmurs of a 'supermajority' are off.

Read ITV West Country's full report on the battle between the two historic rivals here.

• Plymouth Moor View: A clash of the veterans in the battle for Plymouth

This constituency is seeing not only a clash of the parties, but conflict between two former military men.

The Conservatives' Johnny Mercer is the incumbent and has been since 2015. The Veterans' Minister has consistently pushed up his majority at each election since, most recently winning by a comfortable 12,897 votes.

But Labour has set it's sights on taking Mercer's seat and has matched the Conservatives' ex-Army captain with a former captain in the Royal Marines.

Fred Thomas hopes to win the seat for Labour, but Mr Mercer has come out swinging in recent days - questioning Mr Thomas's military service.

Labour's candidate has denied "lying" about his service as his opponent has alleged, and said he is "unable to discuss" much of his time in action.

Away from the candidates for the two main parties, Sarah Martin is standing for the Liberal Democrats, Shaun Hooper for Reform UK, and Georgia Nelson for the Green Party.

• St Ives and the Isles of Scilly: Could part of Cornwall turn orange come 4 July?

This traditionally Conservative seat is being targeted by the Liberal Democrats, who last won it in 2010.

Conservative candidate Derek Thomas is the incumbent, having first stood in 2010 before winning in 2015 and holding it ever since. His majority has gone through ups and downs across three elections and in 2019, he beat the Liberal Democrats by 4,280 votes.

For their part, the Lib Dems have put up the same candidate in the seat since 1992 and are hoping Andrew George can regain a seat he has won in four elections.

In 2019, this was the very last seat in the UK to declare a result because of poor weather conditions disrupting voters in the Isles of Scilly.

This time around, housing, fishing and climate change are the top priorities for voters in the St Ives, according to the candidates.

To hear what they have to say and for a full list of candidates, read ITV West Country's St Ives constituency report here.

• Swindon South: The senior Conservative staving off Sir Keir Starmer's attention

Swindon South is another Conservative West Country seat that Labour has locked eyes on.

Sir Robert Buckland, formerly the Welsh Secretary and before that the Justice Secretary, is the incumbent Tory candidate, having represented the seat since 2010.

His majority has also wavered throughout his 14 years in office, but in 2019 he received 6,625 votes more than Labour - his largest to date.

The former barrister will now be fighting to keep his seat against Heidi Alexander, a Labour politician and former MP hoping to reclaim the constituency for her party.

Labour won Swindon South when it was created in 1997 and held it until the 2010 general election. Ms Alexander has previously sat in the Commons as an MP for Lewisham East, in London, between 2010 and 2018.

She then resigned her seat to serve as the Deputy Mayor of London for Transport. But now she has returned to her birth city, where she hopes to win election back to Parliament.

Labour has been pushing hard to take this seat this election campaign. Sir Keir Starmer, the party's leader, visited the constituency on 19 June, just over two weeks out from polling day. The visit is a sure sign Labour is determined to win the area over.

But as well as facing challenges from Labour, Sir Robert Buckland is also facing competition from Martin Costello (independent), Rob Hebden (Green), Catherine Kosidowski (Reform UK) and Matt McCabe (Liberal Democrats).

• Truro and Falmouth: Labour's hope for regaining a grip on Cornwall?

A seat that has been Conservative since 2010 has now caught the attention of Labour, as the party seeks to unlock areas of Cornwall.

Truro and Falmouth has voted blue since it was created in 2010.

Cherilyn Mackrory was first elected to Parliament for the area in 2019, with a majority of 4,561 - bigger than her Conservative predecessor.

Although not from the area, Ms Mackrory has lived in the Duchy for 13 years and has previously served as a local councillor, before her five years as Truro and Falmouth's MP.

Jayne Kirkham is leading the charge for Labour in the area, and a seat in Cornwall would be a big step for the party. Ms Kirkham previously tried to win election in the seat unsuccessfully in 2017, losing by 3,792 votes.

The former lawyer is also the Labour group leader at Cornwall Council and hopes it may give her the name recognition she thinks she might need to win.

Cornwall’s Local Democracy Reporter, Lee Trewhela, says Cornwall has not always been so Conservative.

He said: "In Falmouth, we had the only Labour MP in Cornwall for the last 50 years in Candy Atherton. She was elected in 1997.

"So the polls would suggest that Labour could steal the seat from the Conservatives. But polls can be wrong and we won't find out, of course, until everybody votes.”

Read ITV West Country's full report on the battle for Truro and Falmouth here.

• Wells and Mendip Hills: Could the Lib Dems regain the seat after nine years?

Wells and Mendip Hills is another new seat that has lost what would have been its incumbent Conservative MP.

Formerly known as 'Wells', this seat was represented by then-Armed Forces Minister James Heappey in its previous form, before he stood down earlier this year.

Now standing for the Conservatives in this seat is Meg Powell-Chandler, a former special adviser who has primarily worked in Number 10 and in various government departments.

Powell-Chandler was born in Gloucester and has not been elected to local or national government, making this her first time standing to be an MP.

She will be hoping to revive the majorities received by Mr Heappey, her predecessor - most recently in 2019, when he won by 9,991 votes.

Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister, dropped by last week to give Ms Powell-Chandler his backing, in a bid to firm up what has been dubbed the 'rural wall'.

The visit is a personal endorsement by a big hitter, but it is also a sign that the party does feel genuinely threatened at the chances of holding onto this seat.

In Wells and Mendip Hills, the threat comes not from Labour but from the Liberal Democrats' Tessa Munt, who represented the original Wells seat in Parliament between 2010 and 2015.

Ms Munt also served in government during her time in office and was elected to Somerset Council in 2017.

She has unsuccessfully stood against Conservative candidates four times, but will hope to have an 'incumbency effect' of her own - being better known locally than her Conservative opponent for the first time since she contended the seat.

Both candidates will be vying for the seat against Craig Clarke (independent), Helen Hims (Reform UK), Joe Joseph (Labour), Abi McGuire (independent), and Peter Welsh (Green).

• West Dorset: Could this seat be the Lib Dem's gateway to the West Country?

West Dorset is on the Liberal Dems' target list and is a seat they feel increasingly confident they could win.

The incumbent is Conservative candidate Chris Loder, who was elected in 2019 on a comfortable majority of 14,106.

It's another place that the Liberal Democrat leader, Sir Ed Davey, has visited.

The Liberal Democrats took Dorset Council from the Conservatives in the local elections, gaining 15 seats. Polling also suggests the Liberal Democrats are on track to take the seat from the Tories.

Speaking ahead of those results, Mr Loder reflected the election campaign in West Dorset would be "tough" and said he would never take any votes for granted.

Going up against him is the Liberal Democrats' Edward Morello, who also ran unsuccessfully in 2019. He works in renewable energy investment and lives in Bridport.

A victory for the Lib Dems here would signal the party may be more successful right across parts of the West Country. Losing a majority of more than 14,000 votes for the Conservatives could signal that they would be on track to have one of their worst set of results for decades.

Watch ITV News West Country's full report on the West Dorset constituency here.

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