Andrew RT Davies' exit signals start of major ideological battle for Welsh Conservatives

It began with a traffic jam.

Andrew RT Davies found himself stuck on his way into Cardiff Bay, delaying the start of a meeting which would decide his political fate.

The Senedd Conservative leader entered the room knowing full well his colleagues were already divided over his leadership.

Last week, he was informed that seven members of his shadow cabinet were prepared to resign unless he reconsidered his position. In response, he met with them to hear their concerns.

Conservative sources say it was suggested Andrew RT Davies step down "on his own terms" to preserve his dignity. But he pushed back, questioning how that could happen when some within the group had leaked their plans to the media.

Ultimately, he chose to take control of the situation, declaring that he would call a vote of confidence in his leadership.

As the meeting began, expectations were that a secret ballot would be held. Instead, Andrew RT Davies proposed a show of hands, a motion which was seconded. Now, there would be no hiding: everyone would know who wanted to back him or sack him.

"It was important that people couldn’t do their crimes in the dark - they were going to be seen,” said one supporter.

The result: nine votes to keep him, seven to get rid of him. He won the vote, but at what cost?

"He wasn’t angry," said one source. "He’s a happy warrior."

Despite the victory, the group remained deeply divided, leaving him with no choice but to step aside.

After the vote, Andrew RT Davies consulted with some MS colleagues, Russell George, former leader Paul Davies, and chief whip Darren Millar. They agreed he should stay on as interim leader. He informed the group and published a letter to the Welsh Tory chair setting out his plan.

Conservative sources have described the atmosphere since his announcement as "gloomy".

"Sometimes it is difficult to accept when your time is up in politics," said one. "Andrew's frustration at losing the top job is clear. In time he'll recognise he made the best decision for the party with the next election 18 months away."

But is that it? No, it's clear this is the start of a bigger ideological battle within the Welsh Conservative movement. At stake is the party's future direction and Wales' politics.

Supporters of Andrew RT Davies believe his strategy was the right one: reaching out to working-class voters who have historically not supported the Conservatives but might back Reform UK. Critics argue that pursuing a Reform-esque approach is futile, insisting the party must appeal to the centre ground instead.

This internal conflict is likely to play out in any upcoming leadership election. The choice: stick with the current strategy but under a new leader, or change direction entirely.

However, supporters of Andrew RT Davies have a warning for the so-called "plotters": if they win, they shouldn’t expect any more loyalty than they’ve shown to him.

One last question - what's next for RT?

While he’s ruled out defecting to Reform, could that stance shift? If discontented with the direction under the next leader, might he follow the path of other Conservative politicians and make the leap, handing Nigel Farage a coup and fracturing the Conservative Party?

The road ahead promises plenty of twists and turns.

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