Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies faces confidence vote

Welsh Conservative Senedd members will vote on Tuesday, 3 December, on whether they have confidence in the party's leader, Andrew RT Davies.

It is understood Mr Davies has called for the vote to be held by Senedd Conservatives in their regular group meeting.

It follows a meeting held last week with a group of MSs who, it is understood, expressed dissatisfaction with his leadership.

The vote will be held as a secret ballot as opposed to the expected show of hands, making it more difficult to gauge who has voted yes or no.

There have been concerns over some of the MS's social media posts over the past six months.

Some came after he posted a photo on social media from the Vale of Glamorgan County Show earlier this year inviting people to have their say on abolishing the Senedd.

Fellow shadow cabinet members made public statements saying that the party doesn’t support abolition. Mr Davies also told ITV Wales' Sharp End programme that “it isn’t Conservative policy” and that “our policy is to make devolution work for the people of Wales".

He also faced criticism from colleagues after posting comments about halal meat in Welsh schools.

While he insisted that he was raising legitimate questions from constituents, his fellow shadow cabinet member, Natasha Asghar, told the BBC she had raised concerns about his posts with him.

In October, Mr Davies also received an official reprimand after the Senedd’s Standards Committee endorsed a finding by the Standards Commissioner that he brought the Welsh Parliament into disrepute by calling Wales' 20mph speed limit a "blanket" policy on social media.

He said that his choice of words was "a matter of opinion".

An MS for South Wales Central, Mr Davies has been leader of the Welsh Conservatives in the Senedd for most of the last 13 years, first being elected in 2011.

While he quit in 2018, he returned unopposed in 2021 after Paul Davies stood down and has been leader of the party ever since.

• Analysis from ITV Wales Political Editor Adrian Masters

You should never write off Andrew RT Davies. He's been the dominant figure amongst the Welsh Conservatives for well over a decade and that includes a spell on the backbenches rather than in the top job.

He'd been forced to quit in 2018 when he lost the confidence of the Senedd group (sound familiar) but was the unanimous choice to return as leader at another time of crisis for the Welsh Tories.

But even given his survival skills, this is a dangerous time for Mr Davies. There is a level of unhappiness about his leadership within the group and within the wider party. It's not universal - he has plenty of support still - but it's not clear how widespread the dissatisfaction is. Making today's vote a secret ballot may well embolden some of those who've told him they back him to join the rebels.

While there may be dissatisfaction, there's also no real agreement as to who should take over. Those pushing for him to stand down may find that their preferred choices are rejected by the group and the membership if it reaches them in a vote.

All of this could be a dangerous distraction at a time when the party is still coming to terms with losing all of its Welsh MPs in the UK General Election and is looking at polls like today's Barn Cymru which shows them coming behind Reform UK in 2026's Senedd election.

How to respond to this desperate situation is at least one of the dynamics behind today's challenge: should the party move to the populist right of politics to meet the Reform threat or hold onto the centre? Should it embrace devolution or abolition?

Welsh Conservatives may find those questions even harder than deciding who should lead them in the Senedd.

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