Adrian Masters: 'A serious situation' facing Eluned Morgan as she becomes Welsh Labour leader

• Political Editor Adrian Masters looks back on the new Labour leader's political career...

By one gauge, Eluned Morgan’s route to the top has taken her six years but by another it’s been a 30-year journey.

The contrast is stark between her ‘coronation’ as Welsh Labour leader, unopposed with the support of nearly every Senedd member, and her third place in 2018’s leadership election.

In fact she very nearly didn’t even get to third place. Struggling to win enough support to be on the ballot, she relied on the then First Minister Carwyn Jones ‘lending’ her his nomination in order to ensure that a woman was in the contest.

She certainly wasn’t seen as a likely unifying figure at that stage, unlike now.

By that point there was no denying her experience: her career as an elected politician began in 1994 when she became an MEP. After that, and before she switched to Cardiff Bay, she went to the House of Lords where she was a Shadow Minister for much of her time.

But this was the time of ‘clear red water’ - emphasising policy differences between Welsh Labour and the UK Labour Party as led by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

To a certain extent, the change that’s happened since then has been that the political landscape has shifted. To be seen as a ‘Blairite’, as Eluned Morgan certainly was, is no longer quite the problem it was back then.

Perhaps ‘clear red water’ was only ever possible during a time when Welsh Government budgets were booming. Now a closer alignment with Keir Starmer’s brand of Labour seems more likely.

Eluned Morgan has also changed. Her leadership bid trumpeted her ‘radical’ socialism which may have raised eyebrows six years ago but not now.

What next?

Now she has to become First Minister and that requires a vote in the Senedd. Since it’s on recess, that would mean it being recalled and that, in turn, depends on whether or not Vaughan Gething intends to resign his post now or wait until the start of term in September.

If, as seems likely, he tenders his resignation to the King in the next day or two, the recall could happen next week, most likely next Wednesday.

The vote, by the way, takes the form of a roll call. Each Senedd member is called in alphabetical order to say who they are nominating for First Minister or to abstain. When this took place in March, Conservatives named their leader Andrew RT Davies while Plaid Cymru MSs did the same for Rhun ap Iorwerth.

The Liberal Democrat Jane Dodds nominated the Labour leader because she believes they have the right to form a government as the largest party.

Making sure members are able to take part could be tricky. While they can vote remotely, they can’t vote from abroad and two of them could still be on an aid trip to Ukraine.

It will mean ‘pairing’ or arranging for members of different parties to cancel each other’s votes. The pairing system failed when Vaughan Gething faced a confidence vote, but there’s a good chance that it will hold on this occasion.

Once the roll call has been held, and assuming that Eluned Morgan is chosen, the Llywydd, Elin Jones, then writes to the King with the Senedd’s recommendation.

That’s the point when Eluned Morgan becomes the first female First Minister of Wales and also the point when the really hard work begins.

The challenges aheadIt’s hard to overstate the difficulty Welsh Labour is facing. Its divisions are the deepest and most public that they’ve been for 25 years - healing those wounds will be a major challenge for Eluned Morgan.

Some within the party share some of the feeling expressed by opposition parties, that it’s been in power too long and is becoming tired and out of touch.

Ironically given its celebration of victory in the UK General Election, Labour in Wales is looking at some terrifying poll numbers showing it will struggle in the next Senedd election which is due to be held in 2026.

Not only that but it will fight that election on a voting system - introduced by itself with Plaid Cymru support - that makes it almost impossible for any party to gain a majority and will give more seats to others, including smaller parties such as Reform UK and the Green Party.

There are those within Welsh Labour who fear that disaster is looming for them in 2026 and an unprecedented period of opposition will follow.

On this day of celebrating for Eluned Morgan she knows that if they collectively fail to avoid that disaster, she will carry the can. That’s how serious a situation is facing the new leader of Welsh Labour.

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