What happens next to find Vaughan Gething's replacement?

A crucial weekend lies ahead for the Welsh Labour Party with decisions being made that will shape the contest to replace Vaughan Gething as leader and First Minister.

There are also some early signs of who some of the candidates in that contest might be.

They’re likely to include the man who narrowly lost to Mr Gething in March’s leadership election, Jeremy Miles.

Vaughan Gething announced on Tuesday that he intends to resign as Welsh Labour leader.

He said that he “had hoped that over the summer a period of reflection, rebuilding and renewal could take place under my leadership” but that “I recognise now that this is not possible.”

In his four months in the top job he had struggled to stabilise his government in the face of near-constant criticism over donations to his leadership campaign and, later, his decision to sack a minister, Hannah Blythyn, for leaking to the media. She denied the accusation.

Mr Gething had continued in post despite losing a confidence vote in the Senedd, but it was internal criticism rather than opposition pressure which finally forced him to quit.

On Tuesday, four cabinet members quit, telling him in their resignation letters that they could not serve under his leadership and that a new leader should be elected.

Shortly after their resignations, Mr Gething made his own statement, triggering a leadership contest in Welsh Labour.

Details of that leadership contest should become clearer this weekend. Labour’s Welsh Executive Committee (WEC) is meeting Saturday morning to start the process.

Members of the WEC will appoint a Procedures Committee and it’s that group which will set the timetable and method for choosing a new leader.

There’s something close to consensus that it should be done as quickly as possible, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a new leader will be in place by the time that the Senedd returns on 16th September.

The nomination process is likely to be sped-up with nominations closing as early as next week.

The qualification to be a candidate is likely to be the same as it was in the contest to replace Mark Drakeford: candidates had to be Senedd members and to have won nominations from either five other MSs or three MSs and three party affiliates such as Trades Unions.

Each of the local Labour groups (CLPs) and affiliates are given opportunity to nominate and to hold hustings to question the candidates.

Then there has to be time for the voting itself; in the last leadership election the ballot was open for a full month.

As a result it’s likely that the new leader won’t be in place until the end of September, just before Labour’s UK party conference.

There are those within the party who think that means that a temporary leader should be appointed between now and the result being announced, but that could lead to complications in the Senedd because the rules governing how First Ministers are appointed are strict.

As for who might stand, some names are emerging although they’re far from confirming.

I understand that the Economy Secretary Jeremy Miles can count on enough support to be on the ballot.

He’ll carry on holding conversations within the Senedd group and wider Labour Party over the weekend, ahead of an expected announcement next week.

• Vaughan Gething addressing the Senedd on Tuesday

Another former contender, the Health Secretary Eluned Morgan, is also having conversations with colleagues who are urging her to stand.

She’s not yet made up her mind – in the contest earlier this year she decided not to put her name forward and instead supported Vaughan Gething.

Someone else whose name is being mentioned is the Rural Affairs Secretary Huw Irranca-Davies. He had made a leadership bid in 2018 but didn’t make it through to the final three.

Transport Secretary Ken Skates is also included in possible contenders, although it’s thought his closeness to Vaughan Gething will prevent him being seen as someone who can unify the Senedd group.

There had been speculation before the last leadership election that Hannah Blythyn was considering standing. In the end she backed Jeremy Miles but, given everything that’s happened since then, might she think about making a bid?

Whoever takes over from Vaughan Gething will have their hands full. They’ll have to try to reunite a divided group and heal the wounds inflicted over the last few months, and they'll have to deal with an opposition still determined to keep the pressure on.

They’re also likely to be reminded of how many times Labour politicians in Cardiff and London called for a UK General Election when the Conservatives changed their leader three times in one parliamentary session.

The new leader may want to hold one anyway – a fresh start with their own mandate, their own policies and maybe – just maybe – a different political make-up of the Senedd.

Conservative disarray post-General Election might increase the temptation facing a new Labour leader, holding out the prospect of trying to diminish the Tories' political presence further.

The next Senedd election isn’t due to be held until 2026, but you shouldn’t rule out one happening sooner than that. Much sooner.

Want a quick and expert briefing on the biggest news stories? Listen to our latest podcasts to find out What You Need To Know...