Differences, division and deep wounds: Can Welsh Labour recover?

In the decades that I’ve been covering Welsh politics there has been one truism: Welsh Labour keeps most of its differences behind closed doors and unites in public.

Not today. Differences and division have spilled out into the open and no amount of warm words about unity can disguise those differences.

What’s more, Vaughan Gething’s resignation is unlikely to heal the wound which now run very deep. On his side and amongst his supporters there’s anger about the way that they believe he’s been treated.

They feel that he has had reasonable answers to all of the questions that have been thrown at him, that he’s been held to a higher standard than other politicians and that, internally, they have been on the receiving end of a co-ordinated effort to undermine him and bring him down.

On the other hand, his critics within the Labour group feel that their genuine concerns have been ignored and the strategy to face down external and internal opposition was a mistake.

Neither side is happy with where they find themselves. I can’t quote what Labour figures say when I ask them how they gauge things: their language starts with ‘grim’ and ‘crap’ and becomes more explicit.

They all know that things don’t end well for divided parties and they all know that their strength over the 25 years of devolution has lain in what I described above: keeping their arguments behind closed doors and being unified in public.

How on earth can this group of Labour MPs put aside what it’s been through and move on ahead of the next election, due in 2026?

Labour's Welsh Executive Committee, which runs the party here, will meet on Saturday to decide the next steps when it comes to choosing a new leader.

Members of the Senedd group in particular will now look for a candidate to bring them together. It’s unlikely to be the man who came second in the leadership election earlier this year. This episode has left Jeremy Miles damaged in the eyes of even some of those who supported him.

Health Secretary Eluned Morgan is said to have been asked by some to consider standing but is not thought to have made a decision. Other names mentioned are Rural Affairs Secretary Huw Irranca-Davies and Transport Secretary Ken Skates.

Whoever takes over from Vaughan Gething will have an incredibly difficult job on their hands. Even if they can win the support of the Labour group, they can’t count on Plaid Cymru nor the Conservatives either for support or abstention, both of which positions would allow for the election of a First Minister.

Welsh Liberal Democrateader Jane Dodds told me that her inclination would be to support Labour’s choice of a First Minister but won’t make a decision until that choice is made.

If no First Minister is elected, there will automatically be a Senedd election.

Might Labour be tempted to pre-empt such an eventuality and call for a snap Election? It can reach the two/thirds majority needed because Plaid Cymru has today called for just that.

But why would Labour do so? After all, our most recent Barn Cymru poll showed that it could perform badly in a Senedd election.

However think about the wider context: Labour at a UK level is riding high having won the UK General Election. The Conservatives at a UK level are in disarray and the Welsh Conservatives share in that disarray. The other potential thorn in the side, Reform, doesn’t quite have the party infrastructure needed.

Improbable, yes, but in the last six months some of the most improbable things have become reality. The next six months might see even more.