Welsh Labour can no longer blame Tories as party risks 'Scottish Labour-style collapse' in 2026
Labour won, so now what?
The nightmare of 2019 is over. The party recaptured old ground and gained some new, while the Conservatives suffered a Welsh wipeout.
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, Monmouth and the Vale of Glamorgan are particular jewels in the crown.
They threw everything at Caerfyrddin but lost to Plaid Cymru, and they narrowly kept Llanelli despite a strong Reform challenge there and across the country.
But Labour vote share is down.
Events have moved quickly. The new prime minister has appointed a new Welsh secretary in Jo Stevens to work with a newish first minister.
But change may not be limited to Westminster.
Over the past few days, I've been speaking with Labour insiders from all sides, trying to understand the events which could shape the next few weeks.
These themes have emerged:
Vaughan Gething
In the short term, this is the big one.
An early election did little to help the first minister. He lost a confidence vote, and some suggest the experience of speaking to voters in the campaign has alerted the party to a Welsh leadership problem.
"They've heard the criticism on the doorstep," said one source. "The only person that can solve this is Vaughan."
During the General Election, Sir Keir Starmer stood shoulder to shoulder with the first minister. I understand he is keen to get to Wales as prime minister, but some have a message for him.
The source continued: "Welsh Labour risks a Scottish Labour-style collapse at 2026 (the next devolved elections). It will be Keir Starmer's first electoral test. Labour may be able to win enough seats in Scotland to form a government but at the same time lose Wales. That's the reality Keir Starmer’s office needs to understand."
We know why Vaughan Gething is under pressure. His ratings are low, he doesn’t seem to have the numbers to pass a budget, and there are growing internal party issues to manage.
Labour is the largest party in the Senedd but without a majority. A few members can cause trouble for the leadership.
"There are complex dynamics in play," said another insider. "It's not just one issue; it's about competing visions and factions. It needs to be resolved quickly in the interests of the people of Wales.”
Speaking to ITV Cymru Wales, former first minister Carwyn Jones called on colleagues in Cardiff Bay to back Vaughan Gething
"Vaughan is the leader; he's had a difficult start, and he has work ahead of him to convince people to vote Labour two years time, to show people his metal and his ability, he will know that and in order for him to do that, it is important that everyone is behind him, united, solid as a group."
"People don't tend to vote for parties that are divided, and that's something any party would want to avoid going into an election."
So, what is causing the tension?
Stories about campaign donations and deleted messages have dominated Vaughan Gething’s leadership, but there are also policy differences.
Some on the left feel he’s rolling back on Mark Drakeford's legacy.
The 20mph policy, the sustainable farming scheme, and council tax reform are some policy areas which have changed or been kicked into the long grass.
When education secretary Lynne Neagle shelved plans to reform the school holiday, former First Minister Mark Drakeford snapped, saying it was the "abandonment of a manifesto commitment".
Now the general election is over, I understand Vaughan Gething’s team is preparing for a "challenge moment" to come from within the party. His supporters believe he will face it down and argue that his position with the group is stronger now than during the leadership election.
“Some in the group think this is an Alun vs Rhodri moment again," said one source, referring to the battle between Alun Michael and Rhodri Morgan for the Welsh Labour leadership in the early days of devolution. “It isn’t. Vaughan Gething was elected on one member, one vote.”
But if Vaughan Gething were to leave office, who would take over?
Some would demand an election and couldn’t stomach a coronation.
Economy minister Jeremy Miles would be an obvious candidate, having only narrowly lost the leadership election.
“There’s no guarantee that it would be Jeremy Miles next," said one source. "Although if an election is forced, it is hard to see how he would lose it.”
Other suggested names include health secretary Eluned Morgan. Others may also stand.
Relationship with Westminster
Jane Hutt must be one of the longest-serving cabinet members in the democratic world. She will soon have another achievement —the only Welsh minister who remembers working with a Westminster Labour Government.
When the Welsh Assembly was born in 1999, Labour in Westminster had all the government experience. Now, roles have been reversed.
I understand there have been some informal behind-the-scenes conversations between soon-to-be cabinet ministers and their counterparts in Wales, sharing their experience of running a government.
“There’s a respect there that wasn’t in 1999,” said one insider.
Some working relationships are said to be strong. I'm told the first minister and the new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, are close.
Other names who have impressed Cardiff Bay include Bridget Phillipson and Jonathan Reynolds for his work on steel.
There’s also a feeling that more Welsh MPs will change the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP)'s dynamic, but not all are convinced it will be for the better. One source suggests it looks like the most “anti-devolution PLP to date".
Some were annoyed by aspects of the campaign in Wales, such as candidates being “parachuted” into safe Welsh seats and the response to calls for more devolved powers over the police and justice.
When the new Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens was asked about it last month, she told S4C that no one "would be forgiven for trying to rip up and reconstruct the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice at a time when crime is blighting our streets".
Others see it as a pragmatic position, saying the public wants improvements in health and education before Cardiff Bay gets more powers.
And what about that old “clear red water” strategy?
It was designed in the early days of devolution to put some left-wing distance between Tony Blair's and Rhodri Morgan's governments.
All agree there will be closer cooperation now.
“They‘ll be eager to work with each other," said one source. "Early agreement on things where they can align, and they’ll build out on the tricker stuff.”
Change. That’s how Labour framed this election, and the country voted for it.
Expect, too, a change of tone in Wales.
Welsh ministers can no longer blame the Conservatives. They are in power now.
It will be a triumphant period for Labour; they won. Keir Starmer will be prime minister.
But could divisions mean Welsh Labour are about to be party poopers?
I hear they plan an "away day" next week. Oh, to be a fly on the wall.
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