General Election overnight results and analysis from Wales

The political lines have been redrawn in Wales. Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

The political lines have been redrawn in Wales, with the Conservatives losing all their seats and Labour regaining major battlegrounds.

Plaid Cymru gained four seats, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats will make a return to Westminster. See the full list of Wales' new MPs here.

Wales' number of MPs has been cut from 40 to 32 following a boundary reshuffle, with Ynys Mon the only unaffected area.

Here's how the night unfolded:

  • 7.10am - A sign of things to come

Some elections bring more change than others. This has transformed the political landscape here in Wales as much as it has across the UK.

Labour has won 27 of the 32 seats that were up for grabs here, a resounding victory which overturns the losses of 2019.

However, when the celebration dies down, questions will be asked about how worried it should be about its falling share of the vote.

Is that down to apathy or hostility? Was it because of repeated attacks on Labour’s record governing Wales?

However, the immediate losers are the Conservatives who experienced not just a night of losses but a wipeout in Westminster terms.

There are no Welsh Conservative MPs, as was the case in the last Labour landslide of 1997 and repeated in 2001.

There is now one Welsh Liberal Democrat MP which is something the party has long hoped for.

It will now try to use its base in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe to build back in Wales as it has been able to do in England.

Plaid Cymru’s four seats may seem small beer in the context of the 650 MPs headed for Westminster, but in context it has been a very good night for the party.

Boundary changes and the simple fact that Plaid is often drowned out in the noise of Labour and Conservatives battling each other represented significant hurdles, hurdles that they overcame. Not just that but they increased their vote elsewhere, all of which should stand them in good stead for the Senedd election in 2026.

Also looking ahead to that Senedd election is Reform UK. It didn’t win any seats here in Wales but made gains everywhere and came second in 13 Welsh seats.

With a new proportional system in place for 2026, Reform is certain to win a large number of Senedd members.

  • 5.40am - 'An historic set of results'

Welsh Labour has hailed tonight’s result as “an historic set of results… confirming our position as the true party of Wales".

A spokesperson said" “Across our cities, valleys and coastal towns, from west to east, north to south, Labour has won the trust of the people of Wales.

“People who have never backed Labour before have voted for change, returning Welsh Labour MPs in all four corners of Wales.”

Plaid Cymru has celebrated its four victories as “a stunning result for Plaid Cymru and testament to the real warmth and enthusiasm we have been feeling on the doorstep for the last six weeks.

“Despite the tough context of an unprecedented Labour wave, this is the party’s best ever result in a General Election - representing the greatest proportion of seats won.

“People were consistently telling us that they were desperate to see the back of the Tories but that Labour weren’t offering real change either.

“Plaid Cymru stood on a positive and ambitious platform of fairness for Wales and I’m delighted that people have put their faith in four outstanding candidates to represent them in Westminster.”


5.35am - David TC Davies officially loses his seat

So now it’s official - five former Welsh secretaries have lost their places in Parliament tonight. The confirmation that Labour has won Monmouthshire, something predicted by the incumbent David TC Davies many hours ago, completes the total.

Simon Hart, who failed to win Caerfyrddin, was also Rishi Sunak’s Chief Whip until the election was called. Stephen Crabb, who has missed out in Mid and South Pembrokeshire, was a well-respected chair of the Welsh Affairs committee.

Alun Cairns lost the Vale of Glamorgan to Labour while Sir Robert Buckland lost his Swindon North Seat.

David TC Davies is the first Welsh secretary ever to lose his seat while in the role.

  • ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters reacts to David TC Davies losing his seat.


4.40am - Labour vote share may worry MPs

There’s no doubting Labour is having a good night across the UK and will end up with the bulk of Wales’ 32 seats.

But away from the celebrations, the party will have some cause for concern. In nearly every seat Labour’s share of the vote is down compared to 2019.

Questions will be asked about why that is once the dust has settled but it could store up problems further down the line, particularly with a Senedd election just two years away.

One new MP who did increase his vote share, Chris Elmore, told me that “I think we need to look at what the electorate are telling us of course and we need to learn any of those lessons as the results come in. But the important thing is that people have looked at the party, looked at its positive message and decided it is time for change.”


4.05am - Five Welsh Secretaries lost

It’s looking increasingly likely that Conservatives will experience a Westminster wipeout here in Wales.

Labour is expected to win Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, the Liberal Democrats are confident they’ve done enough to take Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe while David TC Davies has already conceded that he’s lost Monmouthshire even though the result hasn’t come through yet.

He’s the current Welsh secretary but won’t be the only person to hold that office to lose tonight. Former Welsh secretaries Simon Hart and Stephen Crabb won’t be returning to Parliament after losing in Caerfyrddin and Mid and South Pembrokeshire respectively. Early on in the night, Alun Cairns lost Vale of Glamorgan. Outside Wales, Sir Robert Buckland lost Swindon North.

  • Stephen Crabb, the former Welsh Secretary, lost his seat in Mid and South Pembrokeshire.


3.25am - Plaid win Ynys Môn by close margin

Once again Ynys Môn has delivered a nail-bitingly close result. Over the years it’s been held by all three of the largest parties.

Plaid Cymru will be delighted to win the Westminster seat after 23 years but also thrilled to have won more than two seats.

These may seem small numbers out of the 650 seats in the Commons, but boundary changes made it difficult for Plaid to win more than two. Not only that but the party risked being squeezed out of the story altogether by a titanic tussle between the two big UK parties.

The result will be a boost for Plaid Cymru’s hopes for the next Senedd election in 2026 and a vote of confidence for Rhun ap Iorwerth.


2.45am - Atherton unseated

The loss of Wrexham will be a bitter personal blow to the former MP Sarah Atherton and a symbolic blow to the Conservative Party.

When she won Wrexham in 2019, it was the first time that constituency had ever turned blue and a sign that Boris Johnson’s twin messages of ‘getting Brexit done’ and ‘levelling-up’ was persuading a new group of voters to back the Conservatives.

She would have held it again this year if Reform UK hadn’t been standing, another example of Nigel Farage’s party taking enough votes from the Tories to prevent them from winning.


2.40am - No surprises in Swansea

It’s no surprise that Swansea West has returned a Labour MP, but the winner brings a mixture of controversy and profile.

Torsten Bell is well known in Westminster political circles for leading the left-wing think tank, the Resolution Foundation. His selection came late in the day and raised eyebrows because he has no connections to Wales.

He is, however, seen as a close ally of the man who is about to become Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and someone who will play a prominent role in the new Labour government.

Torsten Bell's selection came late in the day and raised eyebrows because he has no connections to Wales. Credit: PA Images

2.25am - Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan result announced

In the Vale of Glamorgan, Alun Cairns has become the first of what could be a number of senior Welsh Conservatives to lose their seats. 

As a Parliamentary seat it’s swung back and forth between Labour and the Conservatives over the years, but has remained blue since 2010. It’s always been won by the party which has formed the government in Westminster, making it a key bellwether seat. 

It’ll be scant comfort to Alun Cairns that he could be one of four former Welsh Secretaries to lose their seats tonight. 

The victor Kanishka Narayan is not only celebrating Labour success but a historic first: he becomes the first ever ethnic minority MP from Wales.

The result also shows another sizeable vote for Reform UK, even though it came third. It’s still unlikely to win any seats but will be buoyed by its success and the subsequent chances that will give it in 2026’s Senedd election. 


1.30am - The wait for results continues

The waiting for actual results in Wales goes on but some things are becoming clear. 

Turnout is so far looking very much on the low side. Confirmed so far is 57.13% for Llanelli, 61.88% in Caerfyrddin, 57.64% in Wrexham, 61.62% in the Vale of Glamorgan and 61.55% on Ynys Môn. 

That will give political parties pause, whoever are the winners and losers. In 2019 the turnout for Wales was 66.6%. If the turnout in 2024 is less than 60%, there will be questions about what led voters to stay at home. 

Was it the onslaught of polls suggesting that the result was a done deal? Was it apathy? Was it hostility to all the parties? 

Elsewhere, there has been a shift in the way that Plaid Cymru is feeling about one of its hoped-for seats of Caerfyrddin. Party sources are now saying that it’s looking hopeful in the seat where Labour had poured in a considerable amount of resources, including making it the location for Keir Starmer’s final visit to Wales. 

It would be a significant boost to a party that only a year ago was at a very low ebb following a critical report into a toxic culture of bullying and misogyny. It’s a big vote of confidence, too, for the still-new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and would be seen by the party as a good sign for the next Senedd election in 2026. 

Liberal Democrats remain hopeful about Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe but not enough to feel confident. They do believe that the Conservatives won’t win it. It’s extraordinary to think that Labour could be in the running in a traditionally Lib Dem, Liberal and Conservative area. 

All the signs are that Reform UK is doing well here in Wales, even though it’s unlikely to win any seats. 

It seems Nigel Farage’s party could come second in Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan, a close third in Monmouthshire and making gains in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, all of which gives it a strong hope that it could win Senedd seats in 2026. 

  • Conservative candidate for Clwyd North, Darren Millar, says if the exit poll is correct the party is "probably in for a disappointing night" but "miracles can happen".


11.55pm - Mixed messages from Monmouthshire

There are mixed messages coming from Monmouthshire. The exit poll predicts it will remain Conservative but the incumbent, David TC Davies, has confirmed to me that he thinks he’s lost. He said that “on the basis of that opinion poll [the exit poll] then I will clearly not be re-elected.”

However, senior Conservatives have told us that they haven’t given up on the seat and Labour sources aren’t yet claiming that they’ve won it. One very senior Conservative has suggested that Mr Davies could be bluffing. 

  • ITV Cymru Wales' political editor Adrian Masters with a round-up just before midnight.


11.30pm - Reactions from the parties in Wales

Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies has been giving me his first reaction. He says he’s “really disappointed for our candidates and activists who worked tirelessly over the last six weeks”. 

He wouldn’t pin the blame on individuals but when I asked him what went wrong, he said: “I think the first thing is we've got to look at what the shenanigans that have gone on in Westminster over the last five years that have proved challenging to say the least.

“In the early part of the parliament, things were going right for us. But then all of a sudden about the midterm point, everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and it stuck in the public's mind.”

He added that his party has to “understand the message the electorate has sent to us and above all, it's been contrite as a party to recognise our mistakes and our weaknesses, and actually say sorry, to the voting public, centre-right voting public, who couldn't feel confident enough to vote for us in sufficient numbers to get MPs back to form a government.”

  • Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies on what to expect for the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru is still being cautious despite the exit poll predicting that the party will succeed in adding another two seats to its expected tally of two. 

A spokesperson says: "We've fought a brilliant campaign we can be proud of, but this is clearly a strong performance by Labour as expected. Making gains in the face of such a strong wave will be very difficult. We should be well placed to hold onto those two seats we won in 2019 - with Liz Saville-Roberts and Ben Lake having fought on their excellent record as local MPs.”

Separately I’m told that postal votes are looking good for Plaid in Caerfyrddin but that members are conscious that that’s set against the huge amount of resources that Labour have put in over the last week.

  • Plaid Cymru MS Mabon ap Gwynfor says the party had a "fantastic" campaign.

Labour sources are playing down the party’s chances in two seats it had thought could be within its grasp, Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin. They believe that Plaid Cymru has done well there. 

However Caerfyrddin was where Keir Starmer chose to be for his last visit to Wales on Wednesday, a sign of how seriously Labour is taking its chances there. So the downplaying may be expectation management. 

They’re not playing down the overall result, though. A source said: "On predicted vote share, this is a really good result for Welsh Labour. Despite 14 years of dealing with Tory austerity we’ve pushed Plaid and Tories hard in seats we weren’t expected to be competitive.”


10.45pm - Digesting the exit poll

I’m here at ITV Cymru Wales’ HQ in Cardiff where a team of us are keeping an eye on the results as they come in to bring you the latest news and analysis about what it means. 

Right now we’re digesting the exit poll. If it’s right, it confirms that Labour will win the bulk of the 32 Welsh seats and the Conservatives are teetering on the edge of a Westminster wipeout in Wales. 

I say ‘teetering’ because the exit poll suggests they will keep hold of Monmouthshire, and Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, two seats it was predicted to lose. 

They’ve certainly put up a tough fight in both, but it won’t be clear for a while if they will retain them. Recount territory, maybe. 

Less so in Brecon, Radnorshire and Cwm Tawe where the Liberal Democrats are on course to return a Welsh MP to Westminster for the first time in a while. 

As for Plaid Cymru, the exit poll says they will add two other seats, Ynys Mòn and Caerfyrddin, to the two it was pretty much guaranteed to win. Four seats may not seem so many but given the hurdles Plaid Cymru has faced, it’s quite an achievement and will be a welcome vote of confidence in Rhun ap Iorwerth’s leadership.


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