Conservatives face electoral wipeout in Wales based on latest ITV Cymru Wales seat projections

The Conservatives face electoral wipeout in Wales with Labour set to regain key seats in north Wales, according to an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales seat projection poll.

The latest Barn Cymru poll projects Labour winning potentially up to 29 of the 32 seats, with the Tories losing key seats including Monmouthshire, the Vale of Glamorgan and Wrexham.

Plaid Cymru are expected to win in Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd according to the poll, though four seats remain too close to call.

Ynys Mon and the constituency of Caerfyrddin are both set to be battlegrounds between Plaid Cymru and Labour, while Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is set to be contested by the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, and Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is deemed too close to call between Labour and the Tories.

It will be grim reading for the Tories, as the party are neck and neck with Reform UK when it comes to voting intention across Wales - both at 16% of the vote in Wales, compared to 40% for Labour.

It's a far cry from Boris Johnson's 2019 high watermark where the Conservatives won 14 Welsh seats.

A string of those were across the north Wales coast which are now set to turn red again five years on.

At the 2019 General Election, the Labour Party took 22 seats, the Conservatives won 14 and Plaid Cymru won four, but a boundary change for the upcoming election means the number of Welsh MPs will drop from 40 to 32.

Wales' Westminster voting intention (MRP model) now, with comparison to June poll result:

• Labour: 40% (-5)

• Conservatives: 16% (-2)

• Reform UK: 16% (+3)

• Plaid Cymru: 14% (+2)

• Liberal Democrats: 7% (+2)

• Green: 5% (+1)

• Other: 2% (+1)

Too close to call

The tightest seat in Wales is projected to be Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, with the Tories and Liberal Democrats each within one point of victory according to the poll.

The seat has been renamed from Brecon and Radnorshire and has seen its boundary enlarged.

It is no surprise the seat is projected to be too close to call, as the Brecon and Radnorshire seat has historically flip-flopped between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

It is one of only two seats which our poll predicts the Conservative Party has a chance of winning.

Labour and Plaid Cymru battlegrounds

There are more seats left to fight over, in this case between Labour and Plaid Cymru. Both parties find themselves within three points of victory in Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin, according to our poll.

Ynys Môn is the only seat in Wales not to have been impacted by boundary changes. At the 2019 election, it was one of the many north Welsh seats to be won by the Conservatives for the first time in decades.

However, according to our new Barn Cymru poll, the island of Anglesey is expected to be regained by Labour this time.

Caerfyrddin is another seat predicted to host a battle between Plaid and Labour. The new seat joins parts of two former constituencies: Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.

The Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seat had been a Tory seat for more than 10 years with the former Welsh secretary, Simon Hart, taking power in the 2010 election.

Meanwhile, the Carmarthen East and Dinefwr seat had been a Plaid Cymru stronghold since the turn of the century.

Now, the Conservatives appear to stand little chance of winning the new Caerfyrddin seat. Instead, both Plaid and Labour are within three points of victory, according to a poll.

Labour v Conservatives

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is deemed too close to call between Labour and the Tories, with our poll suggesting a Conservative drop-off in support has seen the margin only just move in favour of Labour.

You can find a full list of candidates standing for election in all the seats across Wales, here.

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