Party leaders waste no time campaigning in Wales but picture is hazy for all of them

The main political parties have wasted no time in starting their election campaigns here in Wales, but at the end of the first full week the picture is hazy for all of them.

A poll of Welsh voters for the More In Common thinktank shows the Labour is still way ahead with support at 45% compared to 21% for the Conservatives.

However, the same poll shows that a third of people think that Labour’s leader in Wales, Vaughan Gething, should resign over the donations scandal.

The controversy continues to cause problems for Labour during this campaign with Keir Starmer questioned about it during his campaign rally.

He dismissed next week’s confidence motion in the first minister as “the Tories just playing games” and “the oldest trick in the book, and it’s game-playing, it’s diversionary tactics.”

The UK Labour leader gave Mr Gething his full support and thanked him for his “leadership here in Wales” but this situation is a risk for his party.

Conservatives are determined to do all they can to make sure that the link between the two Labour leaders is uppermost in voters’ minds, and not in a good way.

That approach may not have much effect on voters in England where news coverage of the controversies is scarce but it could have an impact on this side of the border. It worked in last year’s Uxbridge by-election and they hope it will here.

It’s always a mistake to write off the Conservatives, even though the polls are so dire. Negative campaigning may not be the most attractive tactic but it can work.

Policies such as the National Service pledge may also be about targeting older, core Tory voters but they’re more likely to turn out on election day.

It’s also important to remember the old adage that “all politics is local.” Welsh Conservatives may be up against it but they are formidable local campaigners.

Plaid Cymru will be pleased at the way things look at this stage in the campaign. The More in Common poll puts the party on 13%, enabling it to hope that it might be able to hold onto three seats and maybe even add Ynys Môn to match the four seats it won (on the old boundaries) in 2019.

But as it seeks to pursue a “plague on both your houses” approach to criticising both Conservatives and Labour during this campaign, it continues to face questions about having worked with Labour in the Senedd.

Rhun ap Iorwerth and others may argue, and they do, that the Co-operation agreement was “mature politics” and a way of delivering Plaid Cymru policies without going into coalition but that won’t stop the accusations that it effectively “propped up” Labour.

UK Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey got on his bike to launch his party’s Welsh campaign as part of a clear media strategy to grab headlines and clicks with stunts that are funny or embarrassing depending on your taste.

Lib Dem polling figures, though, don’t give much hope. Their only real chance is in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe and even that seems like a stretch.

Way above them in polling terms is Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit Party which is consistently showing support between 12 and 13%.

It’s yet to launch its campaign in Wales but that polling support seems unlikely to translate into seats in this election. That might not worry Reform too much. Its leadership is on record as saying that its real focus here is the 2026 Senedd elections where proportional representation will be much more likely to result in seats.

There’s still a long way to go in this election campaign. A lot can change. There’ll be a new Barn Cymru poll from ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University next week that might tell us more.

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