Early stages of contest underway to replace Mark Drakeford as Welsh Labour leader and first minister

The early stages have begun in the contest to replace Mark Drakeford as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister of Wales.

One of the likely candidates has already launched his campaign while two cabinet heavyweights have ruled themselves out of the contest and thrown their weight behind another of their colleagues.

Economy Minister Vaughan Gething came second to Mark Drakeford in the last contest in 2018.

He’s become the first candidate to formally announce the start of his campaign.

In a statement published on social media, he says he's "proud" to announce his "intention to stand to be the next leader of Welsh Labour".

Mr Gething adds: “I do so in full recognition of the huge task ahead of us, both as a party and as a government.

“We can only maintain our record of winning elections and fighting for the people of Wales if we are a united, modern, diverse movement which reflects this nation’s ambitions for the future.

“I am deeply honoured to have such strong support from right across the party, and the country, to build on Mark’s remarkable legacy.

“With a general election on the horizon, Wales has a crucial opportunity to have two Labour governments working side-by-side to deliver real change in our communities and repair the damage wreaked by the toxic Tory years.

“I will do my utmost, working with Keir and all our party colleagues to secure a Labour victory in that election and bring the change we so desperately need.

“I look forward to a positive leadership contest where I plan to set out an energetic agenda for our country’s future.

“For everyone who calls Wales home, I look forward to listening to your hopes, ambitions and concerns in the coming weeks.”

In our recent poll, Vaughan Gething came top of those who expressed a preference, with 11% saying they’d back him.

But that poll needs to be taken in context - far more people (72%) said they didn’t know who they’d want to be the next leader and, more importantly, polls gauge the view of the wider public.

This decision will be made by members of Welsh Labour and they have a very different set of priorities.

In nearly every conversation I have with anyone from Welsh Labour, the view is that the Education Minister Jeremy Miles is far and away the most likely person to succeed Mark Drakeford.

He hasn’t formally declared his candidacy yet but already he has the support of two senior cabinet colleagues, both of whom could have reasonably expected to have put their own names forward.

In her statement, Climate Change Minister, Julie James paid tribute to Mark Drakeford and said that “My first call following Mark’s announcement was to Jeremy Miles, to encourage him to stand for the leadership of our party.

“I’ve worked with Jeremy in government since 2017. I know he has what it takes to be a strong, calm, determined and principled Welsh Labour leader and First Minister. He will have my full support as we look to build a greener, fairer future for Wales.”

Similarly Lesley Griffiths, the Rural Affairs Minister who also has responsibility for North Wales said that “I know what it’s like to fight tough elections. It wasn’t easy to win Wrexham back for Welsh Labour in 2007.

“To ensure we have two Labour governments working together for Wrexham and north Wales, we need to win back the seat in the UK Parliament at the next General Election.

“To beat the Tories in 2024, Welsh Labour’s next Leader and First Minister needs to appeal to people across the country, work with Keir Starmer to win in marginal seats, and together deliver for Wales’s future.

“That’s why I'm backing Jeremy Miles to be Welsh Labour’s next Leader and First Minister. Having served with Jeremy in government, I know he has what it takes to win for Labour and for north Wales.

“You can guarantee that a Welsh Labour Government led by Jeremy Miles will listen to voices and concerns here in the north, and make sure the Welsh Government works for us all.”

Both endorsements are hugely symbolic. They aim to show that Jeremy Miles has momentum behind his bid and that he has already won the support of cabinet heavyweights.

His campaign team also believe they show that he commands supports from different political strands of the party, although in Wales the differences between left and right are often overstated.

Note too how Lesley Griffiths’ statement emphasises what she says is Jeremy Miles’ focus on North Wales and the importance of picking an election winner, suggesting that other potential candidates are unlikely to be either.

Other endorsements show what the campaign believes is the breadth of support. The leader of Rhondda Cynon Taf council, Andrew Morgan who also heads up the Welsh Local Government Association went public with his support yesterday. 

Now the female Labour council leaders: Newport’s Jane Mudd, Monmouthshire’s Mary Ann Brocklesby and Vale of Glamorgan’s Lis Burnett have issued their public backing. 

They’ve been joined by two Labour peers: Lord Peter Hain, the former UK Government cabinet minister and Baroness Debbie Wilcox, the former leader of Newport council. 

So much for the two frontrunners. There’s no word yet from two others who are expected to put their names forward: Health Minister Eluned Morgan and Social Partnership Minister Hannah Blythyn.

How does it work?

Anyone who wants to stand has to win nominations either from six fellow Senedd Members of from a mix of MSs and from the wider membership.

The shortlisted candidates will then be put to a vote of the wider Welsh Labour membership with the winner to be declared in March.

Whoever wins will have big shoes to fill and a formidably difficult task ahead with tightening budgets and a continuing cost of living crisis.

They’ll also have the prospect of a Labour UK Government which may not be the panacea that many in the party hope.

There were considerable tensions the last time there were Labour governments at both ends of the M4 and a Labour Westminster victory would deprive Welsh Labour of the chance to send political blame in that direction.

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