The Welsh seats that could change hands in the next UK General Election
With a UK general election on the horizon next year, the political parties are selecting the candidates they hope will be heading to the green benches in Westminster but some things will be different this time around.
Four years ago today (Tuesday 12 December), the Conservatives were celebrating after winning a majority across the UK and 14 of the 40 seats in Wales, including their first three women. Labour secured 22 seats and Plaid had four.
Boundary changes mean that when the next election comes, parties will be vying for eight fewer seats and this is how they might look:
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, has analysed the latest ITV Wales/YouGov Barn Cymru voting intention and predicts Labour could win 26 of the new seats, Plaid three and the Conservatives would be down to three as well.
He said: “The constituency projections show what we think would happen in an election if these numbers were to play out on the day.
"Like previous polls, they suggest that Labour would be on track to regain much of the ground they lost to the Conservatives in North Wales in the 2019 election, as well as strengthen their hold over many South Welsh constituencies.
“Unlike previous polls, the projections suggest the Conservatives might be able to hold onto the three large constituencies that share a border with England: Monmouthshire, Brecon, Radnor, and Cwm Tawe, and Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr.
"Conservative majorities in these seats are large enough that even substantial reductions in support across Wales might make holding these seats possible.
Which party would hold which seat:
Labour
Aberafan Maesteg
Alyn and Deeside
Bangor Aberconwy
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Bridgend
Caerphilly
Cardiff East
Cardiff North
Cardiff South and Penarth
Cardiff West
Clwyd East
Clwyd North
Gower
Llanelli
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
Neath and Swansea East
Newport East
Newport West and Islwyn
Pontypridd
Rhondda and Ogmore
Swansea West
Torfaen
Vale of Glamorgan
Wrexham
Ynys Môn
Conservatives
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Monmouthshire
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
Plaid Cymru
Caerfyrddin
Ceredigion Preseli
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Dr Larner continued: "Plaid Cymru are projected to win three seats, all again in their heartlands in the West of Wales. Their toughest fight will likely come in the new constituency of Caerfyrddin where estimates suggest the Conservatives would have won in 2019, but where Labour will be eyeing in 2024.
"As always with projections, it is important to recognise there is uncertainty involved. When constituency projections are decided by small margins, it’s very difficult to say with certainty which party would win even if the numbers played out exactly as in the poll.
"This is because of the margin of error that accompanies opinion polls. For example, the projection for Brecon suggests a winning margin of less than 5% for the Conservatives, a result that is very much within the margin of error for individual constituency estimates.”
The Boundary Commission for Wales was required to ensure each Westminster constituency - except for Ynys Môn - has an electorate of between 69,724 and 77,062 eligible voters, reducing the number of constituencies from 40 to 32.
A note on methodology:
Estimates of what the 2019 general election would have looked like under the new constituency boundaries have been calculated using a technique called multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP for short) which combines census data with survey data from the Welsh Election Study.
These seat projections are then calculated by applying uniform national swing which assumes that parties' vote shares will rise or fall equally across constituencies.
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