Poll shows Sunak and Starmer have work to do to with Welsh public before election
With a UK General Election on the horizon, confidence in the Prime Minister, and the man who wants to replace him in No 10, is heading in the wrong direction, according to the latest Barn Cymru poll.
It’s just over a year since Liz Truss’s ill-fated premiership began, with Rishi Sunak taking over in October and polling shows both he and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer have work to do when it comes to winning over voters in Wales.
The latest ITV Wales/YouGov Barn Cymru poll asked how well people think both men are doing in their roles. Over two thirds (65 per cent) of respondents said they thought Rishi Sunak was doing badly, an increase on 58 per cent in the last poll. When it came to Sir Keir, his ‘total badly’ score increased from 47 per cent to 50 per cent.
How well or badly do you think Rishi Sunak is doing as the Prime Minister?
Total well: 23% (-5)
Total badly: 65% (+7)
Don’t know: 12% (-3)
How well or badly do you think Keir Starmer is doing as Leader of the Labour Party?
Total well: 31% (-2)
Total badly: 50% (+3)
Don’t know: 20% (+1)
Dr Jac Larner from the Wales Governance Centre says it's difficult a time for all leaders at the moment.
He said: “The political and economic situation at the moment is not ideal. Really in terms of UK politics, when it is this kind of two-horse race in these UK general elections, you just want to be doing not as bad as the other person. You don't necessarily have to be popular either. Being popular, definitely helps. Being not as unpopular as the other person does help. But also looking at the numbers for Keir Starmer, still 20% of the Welsh public just don't know - just didn't have an opinion on how Keir Starmer was doing.
“So there is potential there for Keir Starmer to potentially convince that group of voters that he is doing a good job as leader of the opposition. But again it's always difficult for people to imagine how a leader of the opposition might perform as Prime Minister right. It's very difficult for them to imagine that so again, it's always slightly more difficult when you're not in government for people to actually kind of imagine how you would perform.”
Labour have more to be optimistic about when it comes to voting intention where not a great deal has changed since the last Barn Cymru poll in May. There's no date set for the next General Election, but it has to be held by January 2025 at the latest.
Westminster voting intention: September 2023
Conservative: 19% (no change)
Labour: 50% (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 5% (-3)
Plaid Cymru: 12% (+2)
Reform UK: 8% (+1)
Green: 5% (+1)
Other: 2 (+1)
Dr Larner said Labour’s figures remain at a "remarkably high level" with 50 per cent of those responding saying they would opt for the party, while the Conservatives stayed at 19 per cent, much below the 2019 level which saw them win a 14 seats in Wales.
Dr Larner said many of those who’d supported the Conservatives in 2019 had switched to Reform UK or back to Labour since that election which was dominated by Boris Johnson and Brexit.
He said: “In terms of where those voters are going now nearly 20% say that they'll vote for the Reform UK.. The Conservatives will really be hoping that they can squeeze that group because we don't actually know for example, where Reform UK will even stand or how many candidates they're going to stand. And therefore, the Conservatives at least will be really hoping that a lot of those voters can kind of make their way back. However, around 15% have now switched back over to Labour and these tend to be people who have actually voted Labour in the past and voted Conservative in 2019. So I think it'll be interesting to see over the next few months, potentially year where those voters go.”
How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
Total well: 40% (-4)
Total badly; 49% (+9)
Don’t know: 11% (-6%)
Dr Larner said: “Mark Drakeford is actually relatively very popular as a party leader in Wales. It is often hard to imagine, given that almost 50 per cent of people again say that he is doing a bad job, but 40 per cent say he’s doing a good job, so it’s not too far off 50/50. And those numbers are much better than any of the other political leaders.
“In terms of the other political leaders in Wales, it’s much more difficult for them. So Andrew RT Davies for example, a really large proportion of the Welsh electorate either don’t really know who he is or at least don’t know enough about him to have an idea about how he’s doing. So a lot of people, in terms of when they think of the Conservative Party, will focus on the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak."
How well or badly do you think Andrew RT Davies is doing as Leader of the Welsh Conservatives?
Total well: 13% (-3)
Total badly: 44% (-1)
Don’t know: 44% (+5)
Plaid Cymru have had a new leader since the last Barn Cymru poll and the results show that while Rhun ap Iorwerth’s well/badly ratings are in the 20s, more respondents answered ‘don’t know.’
How well or badly do you think Rhun ap Iorwerth is doing as Leader of Plaid Cymru? (First time polled)
Total well: 20%
Total badly: 23%
Don’t know: 58%
Dr Larner said: “For Plaid Cymru, in the past some of their leaders have been very, very popular and that has helped them at General Elections, which are generally always harder for the party, because the focus is always on the UK, not necessarily on Wales as much. They've just had a change of leader and again, people won't be very familiar with who the new leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth.
“So even though the people that do know him in our poll seem to think he's actually doing quite a good job, again, kind of large numbers of people don't know who he is. So really Plaid’s challenges over the next few months is really boost the profile of their leader and see if that can kind of protect them from the kind of a UK focus of the upcoming election.”
You can hear more analysis of the latest Barn Cymru poll and its findings on Sharp End Monday at 10:45pm on ITV Cymru Wales.
ITV Wales/YouGov Barn Cymru Poll. Total sample size: 1,051 adults. 1st - 6th September 2023.
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