Tense weekend for Welsh Conservatives as they mull Boris Johnson’s future

Conservatives here in Wales, like the rest of the party, will be holding their breath over the weekend as to what happens with its leader and Prime Minister. 

Boris Johnson may have stopped holding his own breath briefly over the last few days when the intense and tense mood among his MPs appeared to lift following a strong performance at Prime Minister’s Questions and, paradoxically, the defection of one Tory backbencher.

Even so, it’s clear that the worries of many Conservative MPs, and others within the party, haven’t gone away. 

They are said to be waiting for a report by the senior civil servant Sue Gray into the reports of various parties and drinks gatherings in Downing Street. 

She’s expected to report early next week which could make it a very blue Monday for Boris Johnson.

Certainly amongst Welsh MPs, MSs and others within the party, while they’re holding their fire as well as their breath it doesn’t mean they’ve let him off the hook. 

“Big decisions need a cool head,” one MP told me, suggesting that those big decisions are about to be taken.

Nobody’s denying the seriousness of the situation. One said it’s “very rough just now” adding that support is shaky even among supporters of Boris Johnson. 

'A red wall assassin'

A number of Welsh Tories have gone on record with their thoughts. I’ve been going through their published comments. 

With, so far, only one exception they reflect the concern and anger of their constituents but have refrained from making a direct judgement until the Sue Gray report is published. 

Robin Millar, the MP for Aberconwy, scotched rumours that he was one of the 2019 intake who had already handed in their letter saying it was “complete tosh, it’s absolute nonsense.”

In a video on his Facebook page, he laughed off newspaper reports that he was “a red wall assassin” and that journalists had jumped to the wrong conclusion after he’d previously expressed his concern about the allegations. 

“Going from that to a vote of confidence or requisition a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister is … a big, big step to make.”

He added: “There was a piece that appeared [in the Daily Mail]  and I was listed as a ‘red wall assassin’  Now goodness knows what that means. Maybe they chose it because they didn't know themselves but I don't know whether that means I'm supposed to have put in a letter or I'm plotting with others to put in a letter. 

“Look, all I can say is you're hearing it from me. If I was to do anything like that, then you'd hear it directly from me. And it's just not true.”

In a statement on her website, the Brecon and Radnorshire MP Fay Jones acknowledged that “the Government has let itself down.”

“I listened intently to the Prime Minister’s statement to the House last week and I welcome his apology.  It was the least the country deserved.  A senior civil servant will now produce a detailed report into the allegations but, irrespective of the outcome of Ms Gray’s report, it is clear that change is needed in Downing Street.  

“Without delay, the Prime Minister needs to reimpose a much stricter standard of professionalism amongst his staff and focus his energy on tackling growing challenges like the rising cost of living.”

'The allegations of parties in Whitehall during lockdown are extremely serious'

Wales Office minister David TC Davies wrote in the Abergavenny Chronicle and Monmouthshire Beacon that “the allegations … are extremely serious” but that he would not express a view until the report has been published. 

He wrote that he was: “as disappointed as everyone else to hear about parties in Downing Street and elsewhere” and that having followed the letter and spirit of covid rules as well as experiencing first hand the “extremely difficult” last months of his father’s life in June 2020, he can “understand the pain of those who lost loved ones during this difficult time.”

“The allegations of parties in Whitehall during lockdown are extremely serious. They are now being fully investigated by an independent civil servant. Once a report has been published, we will be in a better position to make a judgement on what has gone on, who is to blame and what is the way forward. I certainly do not intend to take a view until that report has come out.”

The Preseli Pembrokeshire MP, Stephen Crabb, wrote in a letter to constituents who had contacted him that he felt “genuinely let down” and had “made the Prime Minister aware of the strength of feeling” about the situation. 

"While he may not have attended some of the gatherings being reported, he does have a special responsibility in setting the culture and standards at the heart of government.

"He was right to apologise earlier this week, but this may not be a sufficient response given the seriousness of these matters.

"I am acutely aware of the anger these revelations have generated and the pain that they have caused.

He went on to say that: "Seeing reports now of blatant breaches of these rules by some of those working within the government I support makes me feel extremely disappointed and genuinely let down.

"Please be assured that I have made the Prime Minister aware of the strength of feeling that exists in my own community about the events that have taken place at Downing Street.

The party’s leader in the Senedd, Andrew RT Davies, told the BBC that he’d met the Prime Minister on Wednesday. 

Unlike his Scottish counterpart, Douglas Ross, Mr Davies said "The prime minister enjoys my confidence. I want to see the Sue Gray report just like everyone else because it does encapsulate all aspects of the allegations in Downing Street during the pandemic.”

That echoed what was said last week by the Welsh Secretary, Simon Hart. 

When I asked him if he still trusted the Prime Minister he said, “All I'm saying here is... I know the guy [and] that he is as anxious as anybody for this to be resolved. We will all have plenty of time to chew over Sue Gray’s conclusions around this thing.

“But the fact is that I think I've got to know him sufficiently well, over the last couple of years in my dealings with him, you know, whether they're formal or informal, to be able to say with confidence, that I trust him.”

'The whole situation is VERY disappointing'

On his Facebook page, the Delyn MP Rob Roberts,  who’s an Independent MP but a Conservative party member, wrote that, “In conclusion, the whole situation is VERY disappointing, was eminently avoidable and clearly should never have happened. 

“I appreciate that the Prime Minister apologised, and I look forward to the inquiry being completed swiftly so that any necessary actions resulting from it can take place and we can get on with the task of rebuilding post-pandemic.”

Only one senior figure has so far been more critical on the record.

Tomos Dafydd, who’s deputy chairman of the Welsh Conservatives, told S4C’s political programme, Y Byd yn ei Le, that it was "difficult to see how Boris can restore his leadership.”

"His authority has decreased in recent days. It is hard to see how the Prime Minister can turn the opinion polls in his favour.”

The deputy chairman’s comments haven’t been welcomed by all. “If Boris stays, I think Tomos should consider his position,” one Welsh Conservative told me.