Covid review: What can we expect from Mark Drakeford in the latest announcement?

Welsh Government ministers are meeting on Thursday to carry out their legally-required review of the Covid restrictions. 

Even a few months ago, such a meeting would have been expected to lead to significant changes of some kind: either a tightening or an easing of the rules. 

That is not expected to be the case this time.

It is more likely that Mark Drakeford's cabinet will agree to keep Wales in Alert Level Zero which has been in place since 7 August.

In other words, don't expect any return to restrictions on meeting up with other people but also don't expect an end to the requirement to wear face coverings on public transport, in shops and in healthcare locations. 

It doesn't mean ministers have no decisions to take, however. 

Chief amongst those decisions will be whether or not to introduce vaccine passports - a certificate or other way of proving that you've had two vaccinations or have recovered from covid - in certain settings, namely nightclubs and large events like concerts. 

Mark Drakeford has made it repeatedly clear that he's not really in favour of such a move but is open to persuasion if his medical and scientific advisers think it's a good idea. 

Elsewhere in the UK, Boris Johnson's government has decided against introducing it in England but has kept it as part of his 'Plan B' for the winter while a vaccine passport scheme is coming into force in Scotland in October. 

Welsh ministers will be considering whether or not to follow Scotland, England - or to compromise and carry out a pilot scheme.

There will also be pressure on Mark Drakeford to spell out his 'Plan B' of contingency measures for the winter. 

Although case numbers remain high, vaccination is seen as successfully reducing the link between those numbers and serious illness and deaths.

Some experts fear that that could change as the weather gets colder and more people meet up inside, putting the sort of pressure on the NHS that could lead to the reintroduction of restrictions. 

For England, Boris Johnson has ruled out the return of some restrictions while keeping others as contingency measures. 

Some of those, like mask wearing, have never been removed here in Wales, but others have and the first minister will be expected to spell out his thoughts for the autumn and winter. 

His scope for action could be limited.

Many of his emergency powers come from legislation passed in the Westminster Parliament. The Coronavirus Act will need to be renewed by MPs next month and it's not yet clear how that will affect the Welsh Government's powers. 

We will all learn the result of the Welsh Government's review tomorrow morning, followed by a press conference (which will be streamed on the ITV Wales social media channels) held by the first minister tomorrow lunchtime.