Fear and optimism: Welsh farmers' views on UK-Australian trade deal

It's been six months since the Brexit transition period with the European Union came to an end, and a new trading partnership between the UK and the EU began.

During the past six months, UK Government ministers have been negotiating new economic deals with countries around the world. But while those deals may be a boost for some industries, there are concerns that they'll finish others off.

ITV Wales’ Rural Affairs Correspondent Hannah Thomas has been speaking to farmers about how the Australian trade deal could affect the farming industry in Wales.

Young farmer Josh Millichap keeps 90 head of cattle at Llaneglwys in Powys. He’s dreading an influx of Australian beef now that the UK has agreed a trade deal in principle with our friends Down Under.

"We've seen the first quarter of this year. It's a 47% drop in food and drink exports already, without this deal coming in”, he said.

“So you start to wonder how people view farmers, and whether we do have a future. We are world leaders in welfare standards in this country. If you want to know where sheep or cattle - or anything - has come from then it's traceable. What they've had, the medicines, there's no use of hormones. It's safe."

Josh also keeps 900 breeding ewes and has been rearing their lambs, ready to sell later in the summer.

But with speculation that a trade deal with New Zealand could be just two weeks away, he’s also worried that it could open the door for the Kiwis to send more of their lamb to Wales.

He added: "New Zealand have said that they want to start off on the same terms, so this isn't just the end of meat coming in, that's an inferior product. It's the beginning.

“There's talk of 'it's good for farmers'. I personally don't see how a product that you can't produce here can come in and undermine you. We welcome competition - bring it on. We don't mind competition in Wales. But on a fair playing field, because at the moment we've got our feet tied together with our hands behind our back."

Sheep farmer Howell Havard from Sennybridge is more optimistic about the idea.

He voted for Brexit and still has faith in Britain's decision to come out of the European Union, despite the fact that Australia is currently the world's biggest exporter of beef and sheep meat.

"I think we've got to be optimistic”, he said.

“We can produce some of the best meat and produce in the world. So what have we got to worry about, you know?

“There isn't a huge amount of food in the world, and since Brexit, we've seen our currency a lot weaker, so we're now competitive on the world market."

Howell isn’t worried about Australian meat flooding the Welsh market as he doesn’t believe it’s “competitive enough to come to Britain”.

He said: "It's all down to 'have they got the meat to flood the market any longer?' I don't think they have. And the Far East and Asia, they are taking up all the slack from those countries you know. 

“They're not going to get that meat to come halfway around the world when they can sell it a lot closer and at the same money. What is the point of that? I don't think Australian meat or New Zealand meat is competitive enough now to come to Britain."

While the UK Government is saying that the Australian trade deal, or indeed any other, will not harm the livelihoods of British farmers, farming unions are not convinced.

The president of the National Farmers Union in Wales, John Davies is concerned that cheaper imports could see Britain just 30% self-sufficient in food in a decade.

"Our food at the present time is the third cheapest in the world,” he said.

“Less than 10% of the household income at present goes on food. That's incredibly good value. And we deliver some of the highest standards in the world for that price."

The International Trade Secretary Liz Truss has said that the Australian deal will eventually give the UK access to Asian marketplaces. 

"That's a really good thing”, said John.

“But look at the team that Australia and those sort of countries have on the ground, you know -  22 food ambassadors charged with selling and promoting their products. What have we got - one, that the farmers pay 80% of those costs in China. That's the only thing we've got. So if you're serious about that, you put an equal team on the field."

The Welsh Government is also concerned and is scared that some trade deals could sour relations with the European Union further.

The Economy Minister, Vaughan Gething doesn't believe the Australian pact will be of much benefit to Wales.

He said: "If they are looking at the fact that we're allowing other goods to come into the country on terms that they don't recognise are equivalent, that could affect our trading relationships and you've seen the charts. I think it's 0.02% of GDP in terms of what we're talking about with Australia. 

“It's a small amount in our global production. It's a very small amount compared to our relationships with our nearest neighbours. And that's where most Welsh agricultural products still go successfully."

The UK Government says that no deal has been signed with Australia yet. But if it does, the amount of meat they'd be allowed to send here could substantially increase and tariffs or taxes on that could be removed within 15 years. 

You can watch the full interviews on Sharp End tonight at 10.45pm on ITV Cymru Wales.