Coronavirus cases in Wales 'likely to peak in late July'

Coronavirus cases in Wales are likely to peak late next month, the First Minister has told journalists.

Mark Drakeford said the Welsh Government has been working with Swansea University to model what could happen next based on the evidence so far.

He also said hospitalisations and deaths could peak in August.

"In previous waves there has always been a lag between infections in the community and an increase in hospitalisations and deaths," he said.

"If this wave follows the same pattern, we can expect to see these peaking in August."

Speaking at a press conference on Friday, Mr Drakeford said the Delta variant of the virus is "spreading freely in communities right across Wales".

As many as 97% of new cases of coronavirus in North Wales are caused by the delta variant, figures show.

Last Friday, there were just under 500 confirmed cases of the variant in Wales. Today, figures show the number has more than doubled to around 1,100 cases and rising.

Mr Drakeford added: "The very latest information I have is that 15 people have been admitted to hospital after contracting the delta variant in Wales.

"Fortunately, these numbers remain low at the moment, but we should be prepared to see them rise – just as they have in England and Scotland."

Wales is around two to three weeks behind England and Scotland, the First Minister said, which could provide "valuable information" about how the variant will behave in Wales.

He said our health service will come under pressure once again if Wales follows a similar pattern.

However, "positive evidence" is emerging that vaccination is helping to prevent serious illness.

Mr Drakeford said: "Take-up rates have been fantastic and, overall, people have been really enthusiastic about the vaccine.

"But there are some small signs of hesitancy among the 30 to 39 age group.

 "Health boards are working hard to make clinics and appointments as flexible as possible – and as close to people’s homes and work as possible – and we are encouraging employers to give staff the time off to be vaccinated.

"We are also continuing to work with particular communities and groups to maximise their protection to make sure everyone in Wales is able to say yes to the vaccine and no one is left behind."