Scotland face final showdown with France: What needs to happen for Wales to win the Six Nations?

  • Gregor Townsend tells a press conference they "owe Wales a favour"

A Six Nations title being decided a week after the tournament has officially finished because some french players fancied some waffles.

We've got used to "different" over the last year and this Six Nations has summed it all up really.

France host Scotland tonight in the final match of the Six Nations tournament after their initial match was postponed due to a Covid outbreak in the French camp.

For those of us still in disbelief at Wales’ Grand Slam being snatched out of their grasp in the final minutes in Paris last weekend tonight won’t be an easy watch because as we know in sport anything can happen.

Wales missed the chance to win their first Grand Slam on away soil in 50 years when they were narrowly beaten by France last weekend Credit: PA

Coming into this tournament Wales were probably not the team fans or pundits (apart from Scott Quinnell) would have picked as tournament favourites but credit to the players and staff they have given us some fantastic moments and world class tries.

But like the rest of the country, the Wales camp will be keeping their fingers crossed that our Celtic cousins, Scotland, can repay us for that 1999 win over England which handed them the Five Nations title.

Scotland's coach Gregor Townsend told a press conference that he remembers watching Wales' infamous win.

Wales celebrate their winning try at Wembley in 1999 Credit: PA Archive

"We maybe owe Wales a favour from 1999 - I remember watching that game with Stuart Grimes in France thinking 'Well, we had a good win yesterday but do we really want to watch England win the Five Nations'?

"And Wales turned them over that day so yeah, I'm sure they'll be cheering us on like we were that day 22 years ago."

So get your calculators at the ready for the scenarios that can happen tonight…

Wales are currently top with 20 points, 20 tries and 20 points goal difference over France

So how do Wales win the 6 Nations?

The simple scenario - if Scotland beat France, the trophy goes to Wales.

For France to win the tournament, they must beat Scotland by more than 20 points and score four tries to earn that crucial bonus point.

No bonus point - the title goes to Wales.

If France score four tries and win by exactly 20 points, then both teams will be level on table points and points difference. 

So then it goes to tries scored. Wales scored 20 tries in their campaign, while France have scored 15 so far. 

Therefore, if France win by exactly 20 points, they also need to score six tries or more to win the tournament

And there's one more scenario - a shared title.

If France score five tries in beating Scotland and win by exactly 20 points, then the championship will be shared for the first time since 1988 - and of course that time it happened to be between... France and Wales.