It is lockdown decision day - but don't expect major changes yet

Credit: PA

Today is the day when politicians leading all four of the UK's governments will begin to make decisions which could see an easing of the lockdown.

But it's unlikely any changes will be unveiled today and there won't be huge changes whenever they are actually announced.

Instead the lockdown will continue but with some measures to relax the restrictions that you will be introduced to in the coming days, along with a timetable for gradually lifting constraints over the next few months.

Here in Wales, Mark Drakeford is this morning holding one of the most important meetings of his cabinet to date.

Welsh ministers have a huge decision to make: change the lockdown rules in step with what's likely to happen in England, change the rules in a different way specific to Wales or continue with the restrictions as they are. All options are fraught with risks.

While the decision will be made tomorrow, it's not yet clear if it'll be announced in advance of the Prime Minister's planned TV address on Sunday.

Ministers in England are considering whether to relax coronavirus lockdown measures in order to allow people to meet up outdoors, Downing Street has said. Credit: PA

On the other hand, Boris Johnson's cabinet isn't expected to make a final decision when it holds its regular meeting today. That will be put off until a specially-convened meeting at the weekend ahead of that TV address which is expected to set out changes that will come into force in England on Monday.

Cobra, the UK Government's emergency committee, has also been postponed until the weekend. The First Minister and health minister will take part in that meeting along with the London mayor and the leaders of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Whatever the timetable, I can say with certainty that the big decisions are about to be taken. To describe them as decisions which will interest us all, is an understatement.

Today is the day when ministers are legally obliged to review the second three-week lockdown period.

The UK scientific advisory group has given its advice and is thought to have suggested a series of changes, 'easements' in the jargon, which could be introduced from Monday without significantly affecting the 'R' rate of virus transmission which is seen as crucial to stopping its spread.

There has been speculation about the opening of retail outlets and garden centres Credit: PA

The sorts of moves they would include are things like allowing people to leave the house for exercise more than once a day, opening garden centres and other retail outlets with social distancing in place, and encouraging more companies to allow more employees back to work.

I gather there would also be a series of dates set in June, July and August and into the autumn when further changes could be made, a route map out of lockdown. But it will be a slow and difficult route.

At least it should be a similar route here in Wales as in the rest of the UK.

I have lost count of the number of times I have heard ministers from the Welsh and UK Governments say they want these decisions to be taken by all four governments together.

There is a strong chance that the new regulations we will have to start getting used to from next week, will be the same or pretty similar in Wales, Scotland, England and Northern Ireland. The ministers taking the decisions are acting on the same scientific and medical advice after all.

But, they could be different - maybe in small ways or maybe in significant ways. That may not be immediately clear when you see the news announced.

After six weeks of lockdown and with several months of vastly-altered lives ahead of us, the decisions ministers will start taking today will be among the most momentous they have ever had to take.