Don't expect early end to lockdown in Wales, warns Chief Medical Officer

Don't expect lockdown restrictions here in Wales to ease any time soon. That's the main message from Wales' top medical and scientific officials today, whatever the Prime Minister announces in his press conference.

The Chief Medical Officer Dr. Frank Atherton answered questions from AMs on the health committee as well as from journalists in the Welsh Government's daily press conference.

Also before the committee was the Chief Scientific Officer for Health, Dr. Rob Orford, and the Health Minister Vaughan Gething.

And their overwhelming message was summed up by Frank Atherton:

"We're not out of this. WE have a long way to go. This virus has many surprises."

Any changes made are thought will be so careful that we won't notice much difference Credit: PA

So any change to the lockdown will be so careful that probably most of us won't notice much difference.

"If we lift lockdown measures too early," Dr Atherton told journalists, "We could see a resurgence in the virus transition."

"We don't have a lot of headroom," said Dr Orford. "If we switch things back on again we will see growth [of the virus]."

The control measures in place - in other words, the lockdown rules we've all become used to - are "very, very effective" so those deciding on easing them need to "carefully find our way forward."

Dr Frank Atherton said testing all people in care homes would not achieve the answers people want about the spreading of the virus.

Testing times

The Welsh Government's refusal to not test all care home residents and staff has been criticised Credit: PA

All three faced repeated question from AMs and journalists about the Welsh Government's testing regime, particularly targets and a difference in approach which has emerged with England to testing in care homes.

They maintained that testing ALL patients and residents in a care home which has had a Covid case, whether or not they have symptoms, would not achieve the answers people want about the spreading of the virus. People testing negative would have to be tested every day.

Testing centres have opened in north and west Wales in recent days Credit: PA

The difference is at an operational level, not at a strategic level, according to Dr Atherton who said the four-nation approach continued to work successfully.

But in his committee evidence, the Health Minister said that he doesn't understand the rationale for the decision to test everybody in care homes in England. Although if the evidence changes, Vaughan Gething said he'd be happy to change his position.

As for targets, Dr Atherton said, "I have consistently advised ministers and media that it's not about the number of tests, it's what we do with the testing."

But for a lot of people, including politicians like Rhun ap Iorwerth who were questioning him, it IS about the numbers. The Welsh Government has been heavily criticised for setting then dropping targets for the number of tests it said would be being carried out by now. As many as 9,000 should be available to be used by now. In fact it's between one and two thousand.

Those initial targets were, according to the Chief Scientific Adviser for Health, set when it appeared there would be many more cases and many more seriously ill people - so the fact that they're not needed is down to the success in not just flattening the curve but squashing it.

However Dr Orford revealed there are internal targets and they're very significant. They just won't be made public.

Wales' 'Mini-SAGE'

There's been considerable focus on the membership of SAGE, the UK Government's scientific advisory group with controversy over who its members are and how much influence officials from Number 10 have. Here, there have been questions about how much Welsh Government is involved.

In his committee evidence, Dr Orford outed himself as being not just a member but "an active member" who speaks "regularly" and "freely."

Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth asked why there wasn't a Welsh version of SAGE, pointing out that there was one in Scotland. It's the same as the one Wales has, according to Dr Orford, which is a Technical Advisory Group (or Cell) which meets three times a week to go through the advice and modelling. Dr Atherton later called it a "mini-SAGE."

Dr Orfod told AMs that he wants the deliberations of the advisory group to be made public. "We've absolutely nothing to hide," he said and their intention is to be more transparent about decisions made.

Could do better

At his press conference, the Chief Medical Officer revealed that he's told the First Minister that there are three ways that they could do better.

  • Better surveillance

  • As numbers come down a better mechanism of tracking and tracing bringing together digital (i.e. apps) and 'old fashioned shoe leather and contact tracing.'

  • Watch what's happening in other countries

In his committee evidence, he gave more detail saying that although the Welsh Government and Public Health Wales do have contacts and ways of looking at what's happening internationally, it could be done better.

"I'd like to see us having a stronger, systematic view of what's going on across the world," he said.

Donna Campbell and Leilani Medel are just two of the many BAME workers working in the NHS who have died

Asked about the disproportionate number of BAME health staff dying from covid-19, Dr Atherton said, "the time is nearly here when a better risk assessment" for all staff to identify potential dangers to them from being on the frontline.

New guidance in England suggests NHS workers from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds should be “risk-assessed” over concerns they could be at greater risk of coronavirus.

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He and other top health officials remain opposed to changing the guidelines to recommend that people wear face coverings in public, despite Scotland's decision to do just that. Social distancing, he said, is more important.

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