Has Wales hit the peak of coronavirus - and what happens after the lockdown?

As Wales and the rest of the UK enters another three weeks of lockdown, knowing when the number of new coronavirus-related deaths has peaked is a key measure in understanding how to tackle the pandemic.

England’s Health Secretary Matt Hancock said “we are seeing that peak” but that it is still “far too early” to end the lockdown.

With the number of cases varying significantly around different parts of Wales, First Minister said he would be “reluctant” to impose unique geographical restrictions but would do so if medical experts advised it.

Coming up with a strategy to ease the restrictions not just in Wales, but around the UK, will be as big a decision as it was to implement them in the first place.

So what is the picture in Wales and what can we expect when restrictions are relaxed?

The UK was placed in lockdown on 23 March. Credit: PA Images

Why was the lockdown extended?

On Thursday the First Minister confirmed there will be a further three weeks of lockdown in Wales and across the UK.

His announcement followed a Cobra meeting with the First Ministers of Scotland and Northern Ireland and the UK Government.

The prime minister placed the UK in lockdown on 23 March to reduce the spread of coronavirus and “flatten the curve” to keep the number of patients at a manageable level for hospitals.

Police were given the power to enforce rules on staying at home and avoiding non-essential travel, including the issuing of fines and even making arrests.

Police forces across Wales have set up roadblocks and checkpoints to ensure people are not making non-essential journeys. Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

Has Wales hit the peak of coronavirus?

Wales saw its highest number of new hospital admissions for coronavirus on 7 April at 196, according to the First Minister.

In Friday’s Welsh Government press conference, Mark Drakeford said the number of new hospital admissions has been below that figure every day since, standing at 105 on Thursday.

He said the number of people needing critical care rose rapidly at the end of March, and was at its highest on 9 April at 161.

But the First Minister said that number has stabilised and been below 161 since then.

Mark Drakeford said the number of people needing critical care was the highest on 9 April at 161, but has stabilised and been below that figure every day since. Credit: PA Images

An intensive care consultant for one of Wales' busiest health boards said the volume of people being admitted to her unit has dropped, but she said they are needing treatment for a longer period of time.

Dr Ami Jones, who works at Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, said: “We were seeing two or three patients every single day a few weeks ago at one stage, and that's dropped off so now it's one every couple of days.

"It's taking a long time to get them out of ITU so any effect we see of people not getting as sick takes a long time to translate to us."

What do the latest figures say?

England and Wales recorded its highest weekly death toll for 20 years, largely due to the number of coronavirus deaths, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

The number of people in Wales who have died in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus rose by nine, on 20 April, bringing the total number of suspected deaths from coronavirus to 584.

More than 22,500 people have been tested for the disease in Wales.

On Monday, Public Health Wales suggested the number of new cases are "levelling off" - a signal that the lockdown measures could be working.

The highest number of positive tests was recorded on 10 April, with 502 new confirmed cases. Credit: PA Images

The figures show the highest rise in Wales’ coronavirus death toll was on 15 April with 60 more deaths.

The highest number of positive tests was recorded on 10 April, with 502 new confirmed cases. However Public Health Wales said the figures were higher than usual due to a change in the recording method the previous day, when only 16 new cases were recorded.

The Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport is one of the worst hit hospitals by coronavirus in Wales. Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

The area covered by the Aneurin Bevan Health Board is the worst hit in Wales, with a total of 1,639 positive tests for the virus.

On Sunday a consultant at the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport said “around 50 per cent” of his colleagues in A&E have tested positive for coronavirus.

Consultant Dr Tim Rogerson said a "similar per cent" has been affected in the hospital's nursing team.

Consultants say life will not return to normal 'for a very long time', even when the lockdown has been lifted. Credit: PA Images

What will happen after the lockdown?

Mark Drakeford said the Welsh Government is looking at ways in which Wales will come out of lockdown, along with the rest of the UK.

He said once the lockdown is lifted, we are "likely to see outbreaks" locally, but need to be able to respond "quickly and effectively".

Mr Drakeford also said they will be also watching how other countries respond to lifting the lockdown restrictions.

Dr Ami Jones expressed concern over the lifting of lockdown.

"I wish it [the lockdown] was for longer - I’m a bit worried that when lockdown is over people think it's a big party and everything will go back to normal," she said.

"You’re going to have to stay socially distant, you’re going to have to be responsible.

"It’s not going to be one big party where you’re going to get drunk, because the hospitals are not in any fit state to face that kind of carnage."

"Life is not going to be normal for a very long time - as soon as things start to get lifted, people will mingle, the virus will spread again and we’ll get another bump in numbers and we’ll be full again."