Welsh leaders have much to do to win over voters before Senedd election

The latest Welsh Barometer poll suggests that the three biggest parties in the Senedd are all on course to fall well short of a majority in the 2021 election.

One of the biggest problems they all face is that 3/4 of voters cannot or will not say which of the three leaders would make the best First Minister.

Just 8% pick the man who actually is First Minister, Labour's Mark Drakeford. The Welsh Conservatives' leader in the Senedd, Paul Davies, is on just 6%, with Plaid Cymru's Adam Price doing a bit better with a still unimpressive 12%.

Adam Price does at least have the backing of 48% of Plaid Cymru supporters, people who say they'll give their constituency vote to the party in the Senedd election, but they are still outnumbered by Plaid supporters who don't know who would be the best First Minister or would prefer one of the other contenders.

For Mark Drakeford and Paul Davies, their support is dire even amongst their parties' supporters. Just 21% of Labour voters back Mr Drakeford, only 19% of Tories support Mr Davies.

he poll projects Labour to lose eight seats to the Conservatives at the next assembly election Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

The Welsh Conservatives are potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election with an exclusive ITV Cymru Wales poll suggesting the Tories could gain eight constituency seats from Labour

Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University said, "After the strong Conservative performance in December, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll."

  • The poll, for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,037 Welsh adults (including a small number of respondents aged 16 and 17) and was carried out by YouGov from 20 to 26 January 2020.