Poll: Labour has 1% Welsh lead but most voters say Corbyn's 'poor' or 'terrible'

Labour is on course to lose up to ten seats in Wales, the first poll of the election campaign shows.

After two polls in recent months put the Conservatives in the lead in Wales, Labour are however ahead with a four percentage point increase since last month, mirroring a similar drop in Liberal Democrat support.

Labour are just ahead in the latest poll, though a strong Conservative performance suggests that they'll be the party gaining seats.

The results shows that the Conservatives are expected to pick up nine of the ten seats that Labour are predicted to lose.

ITV Wales' polling expert, Professor Roger Awan-Scully said if the results would be an "electoral earthquake".

"It would be the first time post-war that Labour had not won an absolute majority of Welsh seats in a general election", Prof Awan-Scully said.

A multi-party contest in the current, highly uncertain political context makes the projection of vote share numbers onto seats particularly hazardous.

But using the standard method of projecting uniform national swings since the last general election gives us the following outcome in terms of seats (with projected changes from the 2017 result in brackets):

  • Labour: 18 (-10)

  • Conservatives: 17 (+9)

  • Plaid Cymru: 4

  • Liberal Democrats: 1 (+1)

The seats to change hands would be as follows:

Conservative Gains from Labour: Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham

Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrats: Brecon and Radnorshire (recapturing the seat the party won in 2017, but lost in the August by-election; the projection here is assuming uniform swings since June 2017)

Liberal Democrat Gain from Plaid Cymru: Ceredigion

Plaid Cymru Gain from Labour: Ynys Môn.

Despite the Conservatives predicted to make major gains in Wales, Boris Johnson is yet to win over Welsh voters, the poll suggests.

45% think Boris Johnson is doing a "poor or terrible job" as Prime Minister with only 27% rate his performance as good or great.

But 58% think Jeremy Corbyn is also doing "poorly" or "terribly".

A mere 14% believe he rates as good or great.

More clear cut is what people think this election is all about.

60% of Welsh voters say Brexit is the most important issue, eclipsing traditional issues like the health service and the economy.

  • The poll, for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,136 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 31 October to 4 November 2019.